WHY DO THEY LIE TO US?

Mexico’s president, our State and Justice Departments, ATF and the FBI have all been lying to us when they claim that the Mexican drug cartels get 90 percent of their firearms from sources in the United States. All of them know that is just not true!

Before going any further, I want to repeat a couple of studies I’ve posted before.

Here is an analysis by Joan Neuhaus Schaan, a fellow for Homeland Security and Terrorism programs at Rice University’s prestigious James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy:

MISLEADING GUN STATISTIC
October 15, 2009

The Associated Press article “ATF: Houston effort helps fight gun flow to Mexico” (chron.com, Oct. 1) cited an often quoted but misleading statistic in the debate on the magnitude and significance of the role of U.S. weapons in Mexican violence. Specifically, the percentage of weapons recovered in Mexico that originate in the United States is not 90 percent, but in the neighborhood of 20 percent to 25 percent. The 90 percent figure was primarily derived from congressional testimony of William Neville in April 2009. At the time he stated that of the weapons submitted by Mexico for tracing, which were successfully traced, 90 percent came from the United States.

Looking at the statistics more closely, they paint a different picture. The statistics required to calculate a figure must be derived from a variety of sources, not all of which correlate precisely, but do correlate approximately. The 2008 CENAPI (Government of Mexico's Planning, Analysis and Information Center for Combating Crime) data indicates seizures of 29,824 firearms in Mexico in 2008. Other reports indicate 27,000 to 29,000 weapon seizures. According to the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, in fiscal year 2008, 7,743 firearms were submitted for tracing, and approximately 6,700, or 87 percent, were traced to the United States. Of those successfully traced, two-thirds were U.S.-manufactured and one-third had been imported into the U.S. and trafficked across the border.

While it is clear the United States plays a part, the portion of the responsibility should not be overstated. The figure appears to be closer to 20 percent to 25 percent. Other weapons are believed to come from Asia, Europe, South America and the Soviet bloc states.

Increasingly the weapons arriving in Mexico from other source countries are of military grade, as the cartel arms race rages. These military-grade weapons are not for sale to individuals in the United States, however; to the extent U.S. military weapons have been found, they have most likely been sold to or provided by the U.S. government to another government and subsequently diverted.

What is the result of the 90 percent myth? Significant resources are being dedicated to the weapons trafficking along the U.S.-Mexico border, but anecdotal evidence suggests the searches have resulted in more cash than weapons. The increased searches clearly have a valuable deterrent effect, but the more significant issue is that of military-grade weapons arriving in Mexico on its shores and from Central American neighbors.
_____

And here is an analysis by Scott Stewart of the highly regarded STRATFOR Global Intelligence group:

MEXICO’S GUN SUPPLY AND THE 90 PERCENT MYTH
February 10, 2011

According to the Mexican government, the cartel wars are not a result of corruption in Mexico or of economic and societal dynamics that leave many Mexicans marginalized and desperate to find a way to make a living. Instead, the cartel wars are due to the insatiable American appetite for narcotics and the endless stream of guns that flows from the United States into Mexico and that results in Mexican violence.

Interestingly, the part of this argument pertaining to guns has been adopted by many politicians and government officials in the United States in recent years. It has now become quite common to hear U.S. officials confidently assert that 90 percent of the weapons used by the Mexican drug cartels come from the United States. However, a close examination of the dynamics of the cartel wars in Mexico — and of how the oft-echoed 90 percent number was reached — clearly demonstrates that the number is more political rhetoric than empirical fact.

BY THE NUMBERS

As we discussed in a previous analysis, the 90 percent number was derived from a June 2009 U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report to Congress on U.S. efforts to combat arms trafficking to Mexico.

According to the GAO report, some 30,000 firearms were seized from criminals by Mexican authorities in 2008. Of these 30,000 firearms, information pertaining to 7,200 of them (24 percent) was submitted to the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) for tracing. Of these 7,200 guns, only about 4,000 could be traced by the ATF, and of these 4,000, some 3,480 (87 percent) were shown to have come from the United States.

This means that the 87 percent figure relates to the number of weapons submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF that could be successfully traced and not from the total number of weapons seized by Mexican authorities or even from the total number of weapons submitted to the ATF for tracing. In fact, the 3,480 guns positively traced to the United States equals less than 12 percent of the total arms seized in Mexico in 2008 and less than 48 percent of all those submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF for tracing. This means that almost 90 percent of the guns seized in Mexico in 2008 were not traced back to the United States.

The remaining 22,800 firearms seized by Mexican authorities in 2008 were not traced for a variety of reasons. In addition to factors such as bureaucratic barriers and negligence, many of the weapons seized by Mexican authorities either do not bear serial numbers or have had their serial numbers altered or obliterated. It is also important to understand that the Mexican authorities simply don’t bother to submit some classes of weapons to the ATF for tracing. Such weapons include firearms they identify as coming from their own military or police forces, or guns that they can trace back themselves as being sold through the Mexican Defense Department’s Arms and Ammunition Marketing Division (UCAM). Likewise, they do not ask ATF to trace military ordnance from third countries like the South Korean fragmentation grenades commonly used in cartel attacks.

Of course, some or even many of the 22,800 firearms the Mexicans did not submit to ATF for tracing may have originated in the United States. But according to the figures presented by the GAO, there is no evidence to support the assertion that 90 percent of the guns used by the Mexican cartels come from the United States — especially when not even 50 percent of those that were submitted for tracing were ultimately found to be of U.S. origin.
_____

So why do Calderon, our State and Justice Departments, ATF and the FBI lie to us?

Looking for a scapegoat, President Calderon lies to shift the blame for Mexico’s gang violence to our country.

In an attempt to prop up an increasingly unpopular Mexican president, our State Department parrots the 90 percent myth put forth by Calderon and the ATF.

Obama has a proven pro-gun control track record. The only reason he has not proposed any new gun control legislation is because he fears a backlash from the pro-gun lobby. Obama and Justice Department officials hope the 90 percent myth will lead Congress to pass legislation that will restrict, if not ban, the sales to and possession of military style firearms by ordinary citizens.

And what about the ATF and FBI? Both agencies support strict gun control laws because the vast majority of America’s local and state police administrators strongly favor limiting private ownership of firearms to those designed for use by sportsmen for hunting purposes. The AFT and FBI, like Obama, are hoping that the 90 percent myth will lead to passage of the desired gun control legislation.

Those of us that are gun owners better hope that Congress will always have a strong Republican presence. Why? Because Democrats generally favor strict gun controls while Republicans are against restricting private ownership of firearms.