The home stretch: Pennsylvania, Florida likely to decide the winner
By Boaz Bismuth
Israel Hayom
November 1, 2020
The rainfall in Miami over the weekend didn't stop the multitudes from casting their ballots at the polling place in the city's north. People are voting in droves here, much like in Texas. The numbers are record-breaking.
Coronavirus is once again dominating the headlines, and on Saturday night the city's clubs and restaurants were forced to close. Before that, however, it was incredible to take in Miami's nightlife. President Donald Trump knows the race to the White House is still wide open, especially in a year with so many people voting via mail-in ballot.
He was in Florida on Thursday and Friday he crisscrossed the Midwest – Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. On Saturday he held four rallies in Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important swing state this time around: Whether due to its size (it gives the winner 20 electoral votes), or because it can influence surrounding states. On Sunday, Trump is scheduled to return to Florida in addition to visiting three other states. Altogether, over the final three days of the race, the 45th president is expected to hold 14 rallies.
Trump was furious at Minnesota's governor for preventing the large rally he had planned and restricting the number of attendees to 250. "So they thought I'd cancel … But I said, 'No way, I will never abandon the people of Minnesota,'" he proudly told the crowd.
In Pennsylvania, Joe Biden is ahead in the polls, but in many cases, the candidates are locked in a statistical tie. Trump hopes to repeat his success of four years ago when he won the state by a margin of 44,000 votes to become the first Republican to take Pennsylvania since 1988. In 2016, Hillary Clinton didn't visit the Midwest and completely ignored Wisconsin. Biden on Saturday came back, this time with former President Barack Obama at his side.
He hopes that by doing so he will erase the memory of Clinton's neglect, which only compounded the sense of frustration over the Obama administration's policies targeting the coal industry. And instead of talking to the people there, she spoke down to them. She had hoped the suburbs of Philadelphia, long affiliated with the labor unions, would put her over the top. But in the moment of truth, they turned their backs to her.
Biden, though, who is campaigning in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, isn't taking these states for granted. He arrived in the Midwest this weekend, including stops in Minnesota and Iowa, and on Saturday, as stated, he continued his Midwestern marathon. He had an unfortunate moment at one of his rallies, in Minnesota, when he called Trump supporters "ugly folks" for honking their car horns during his speech. But at least he was there.
Perhaps this is a lesson learned from the 2016 election, and maybe it's the large number of Americans who have already voted (85 million), but all the possibilities are still on the table in terms of the outcome: from a resounding victory for Biden to another Trump surprise; to perhaps even an electoral tie requiring Congress to decide the next president in January. The crucial question is who will win the electoral votes in Florida and Pennsylvania, whether those results will even be accepted, or whether those states will have to determine the electoral votes by other means (in the extreme scenario, states can ignore the popular vote and arbitrarily appoint electors).
Don't hate, don't respect
You can encounter every type of voter in Florida. The ground usually doesn't lie. And in Florida, similar to Pennsylvania, we are seeing exactly why the New York Times recently asked: "Can We Trust Pennsylvania's Polls?" According to the paper, the polls show "Biden clinching crucial counties. So why does it feel so different on the ground here?"
I returned on Saturday to places I visited four years ago. The people there voted for Trump just as the polls at the time predicted a landslide victory for Clinton. Yes, Trump signs aren't as visible as four years ago. It also appears that the unrelenting character attacks the man has faced since entering politics four years ago, aimed at shaming his supporters, have done their part. Only Trump's base is openly proud of voting for him.
The people comprising his base, incidentally, say voting for Trump in 2020 isn't about "making America great again" but about "making America sane again" against the wave of progressivism they believe will be impossible to stop if Biden wins.
Saturday morning. I'm driving to my meeting with members of the Israeli community at the famous Mo's Bagels and Deli restaurant in Aventura, Florida, where many Israelis reside. It isn't seven o'clock yet and I already spot a young man, wearing shorts embroidered with American flags, waving a Trump flag. People driving by honk their horns at him in support.
The restaurant is run by my friend, Paul Cruz, who came to America from Venezuela. "I lived in a socialist country and I don't want America to see a similar fate," he explains his support for Republicans. "Most of the Jews here are voting for the Democrats, as usual. But that's not the case with the Israelis. The vast majority is for Donald Trump."
Paul is very worried about the consequences of the coronavirus, although he's trying to remain optimistic: "Without the coronavirus, these elections would just be a formality. Trump would have won big time. He has many people who love him but also a lot of haters, and the question is who there is more of today in America. This is a national referendum on Trump."
What worries Paul Cruz is the amount of hate in America right now. "People today are choosing sides, so you don't see undecideds. You also see fewer and fewer people who define themselves as independent voters," he says.
Indeed, it seems everyone already knows who they will vote for; the question is whether they'll actually vote. Hence everything is still wide open and largely hinges on which camp has more energy. Nearly 90 million people have already voted – almost half the registered voters. Early voting thus far has already surpassed all early voting from 2016.
Sitting at the table with us are many Israelis. All of them, as stated, support Trump, although they know people on the right who never considered voting for Clinton four years ago yet are switching sides to vote for Biden now.
"I know people who voted for Trump four years ago and voted for Biden this time," Danny Mor tells me. It seems Trump's style; along with his remarks on the coronavirus and his contempt for masks were crucial factors. Paul Cruz disagrees: "I, for example, didn't vote for Trump four years ago even though I'm a Republican, and this time I voted for him. And I'm optimistic there are many others in Florida who will vote for their first time and are voting for Trump, and that's very encouraging."
"But," Cruz adds, "There's no doubt about the 'never-Trumpers' in the Republican establishment, such as the former governor of Ohio, John Kasich, and Senator Mitt Romney. Both of them failed to convince their party to abandon Trump, but it seems the president anyway realized he has to reach out to the undecided Republican voters who are averse to him, and aren't as turned off by Biden as they were Clinton."
"The thing that plays in Trump's favor is Biden," Danny tells me. "Maybe people don't hate Biden like they did Hillary, but they also don't really respect him. He was a gray senator who didn't do a thing for decades. Give me one law he passed. Anything of substance? And it's obvious to everyone that he'll go much farther left than what he's saying."
"Biden is a chameleon who tells everyone what he wants to hear. But you can't lie all the time; it was exposed with the whole energy issue," says Yoram Adar, in reference to Biden being forced to admit, on live television during the final televised debate, that he indeed wants to gradually shut down non-green energy industries in the United States. But Adar agrees that people "don't hate Biden. He was never truly a threat and he can be manipulated, he can be changed."
Doron Feigelman has no doubt that Florida's Jewish community dislikes Trump, despite all he has done for Israel. His wife, Orit, who is sitting next to him, also doesn't understand the lack of support for Trump among US Jews.
"Four years ago, 67% of the Jews voted for Clinton, and this time 70% of the Jews are expected to vote for Biden," says Doron, who admits that among the second generation of Israelis, the fondness for Trump isn't quite as clear-cut.
Pini Dagan, a two-time recipient of the Israel Defense Prize, is very anxious. He thinks Trump won't win because of the coronavirus. I remind him that two years ago, during the midterm elections, he also didn't believe that Rick Scott (Senate) and Ron DeSantis (governor) would win – and they won. "Yes, but there was no corona then," he replies. Pini himself has contracted the virus and he doesn't think it should be played down. "Because of the mask he lost the kingdom," he says decisively.
Everyone at the table agrees that this is nonsense because the blue states didn't handle the pandemic any better than Trump. "The problem with Trump is not what he does, but what he says," adds Dagan, who fully supports the 45th president. "There's never been a president like this for Israel."
Congressman Michael Waltz, a Republican, joins us at the restaurant. A day earlier he saw the president at his rally in Tampa Bay. They even spoke to one another. "The president looks very optimistic. I am, too. I can tell you with certainty that we will win Florida. We've done tremendous canvassing here," says Waltz, who served in Afghanistan with the US Army Special Forces.
He is convinced that America has woken up in time to prevent a blue wave and reminds us that Biden's deputy, Senator Kamala Harris, is beholden to the left. "She is the most progressive senator in the Senate."
On foreign policy, Waltz believes everyone understands why Trump is preferable: "Against Iran, he is doing exactly the right things; the peace between the Gulf states and Israel; the support for [America's] allies; the preservation of American superiority without the need for large forces on the ground – all these are important. Support for Israel is absolute under Trump."
In the meantime, in Europe, waxwork museum Madame Tussauds in Berlin turned political on Friday, placing its wax effigy of Trump into a dumpster with a sign reading "Dump Trump."
No rich people here
After the meeting at the restaurant, I continue to Liberty City, a neighborhood with a large Black population, not far from where boxing great Muhammad Ali briefly lived. When I visited four years ago, I met a few Trump supporters who were sick and tired of the Democrats taking the black vote for granted.
This time, I can tell the residents are far more suspicious of the Israeli journalist who has entered their neighborhood. I encounter a group sitting in an unkempt area of a park, some drinking beers. "We don't do interviews," they tell me. So I turn to Kevin, who is standing on the corner with masks and coffee mugs featuring Biden and Harris.
"I don't know why I'm doing this. I decided this week. My daughter told me, 'Daddy, you're not that political.' But I told her it's a good way to make money," he tells me. Each mask costs five dollars.
"I believe that in our neighborhood Biden will win overwhelmingly. I myself haven't voted yet. I'm not sure I'll even vote. They say Trump isn't good, but does that mean Biden is good? A lot of people here won't vote at all," Kevin says.
But they say under Trump American is more racist, I say. "I haven't seen anything new these past four years," he tells me. Indeed, race has returned to the headlines in recent days after a young black man was shot and killed by police officers after threatening them with a knife, in Philadelphia. The incident sparked riots, which led the deployment of the National Guard in the city.
A group of men has gathered across the street. "Don't photograph me," Junior, wearing a Miami Heat jersey, tells me. "Understand – it's easy in Liberty City: Rich people vote for the Republicans and poor people vote for the Democrats. And there are no rich people here."
He says he doesn't know whether he'll vote or not. His friend has already voted for Biden. "It's not about whether he likes or doesn't like blacks. Trump gives money to the rich, the question is whether the Democrats give enough money to the poor." Two women nearby, who haven't voted yet either, explain that "Liberty City belongs to Biden, but Liberty City doesn't decide."
Trump is proud of improving the standard of living for black Americans, but there's no doubt that the killing of George Floyd in Minnesota helped fan the racial tensions. "I don't want riots. I want to live in dignity," Junior tells me.
Kevin from Liberty City says white Republicans but a lot of ammunition, and he is very worried about what they will do Tuesday night if and when Trump loses.
In the Cuban-American neighborhood of Little Havana, in the heart of Miami, I see far fewer signs, stickers, or hats for either candidate. For years now, Cuban Americans have been ardent supporters of the Republican party, because of its hardline stance toward the Castro regime in Cuba.
Yet despite the scarcity of signs, the people here massively support the president and very well could hand the president the valuable state of Florida and its 29 electoral votes. Hence the Democrats are trying to counter-balance their vote with the Puerto Rican and other minority communities. It will be a tough battle, as it was four years ago.
Next to the Versailles, the most famous Cuban restaurant in Miami, I meet Osaweh Eido Caparo. He has a Trump mask and hat on, and tells me what the people here feel: "Wait, come here tomorrow and see what a support rally is. Friends show up spontaneously. We love this president. He's good for business, he's good for America. He will also liberate Cuba from the Castro family, and Nicaragua and Venezuela. He is the person the Hispanics believe in. He's good for us. Corona is a problem, but to say he's responsible for it is fake news. China is responsible for it, period."
Miguel Savadorn joins us. He heads a human rights association. "Precisely because human rights are important to me, I support Trump. He is freeing nations in South America. What did Biden do when he was vice president with Obama? He had ties with the Castro regime. We, the Cubans of Miami, who know Cuba well, cannot accept this. Anyway, do you know how much the economy improved under Trump?"
Near the restaurant is a cigar shop named "Macabi Cigars." Everyone there has already voted for Trump. But you know, with Biden as president, you might be able to smoke Cuban cigars here, I tell them, because he'll open ties with Cuba.
"We'd rather give up Cuban cigars and see the Castro regime fall in Cuba, and that will only happen with Trump," Miguel tells me. "Write it down – in Florida, the Hispanics don't support Trump – they love Trump."
I leave Florida with the sense that Trump is the big favorite here. The concern is about what will happen if the results are too close to call or if large-scale voter fraud is discovered, particularly in this year's swing states, which must also contend with unprecedented voting challenges no one expected. Although the coronavirus has already stolen the show, in Florida it doesn't seem to be the issue. The people here are already accustomed to drama and presidential races with no clear winner, and the pandemic in this regard hasn't changed a thing because the state already has a well-oiled system in place for mail-in and early voting.
The feeling is that if Florida produces a clear winner, the rest of the US will follow suit or at least tensions will dissipate – either on Tuesday or in the weeks thereafter.
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