HOW OTHERS SEE OUR AFGHAN FIASCO ..... THE WORLD'S STRONGEST SUPERPOWER CAN BE MADE TO FLEE WITH ITS TAIL BETWEEN ITS LEGS

America's shattered Afghan dreams

 

By  Yoav Limor  

 

Israel Hayom

August 16, 2021

                                             There's a new king inAfghanistan

 

It is impossible to exaggerate just how dramatic the ongoing events in Afghanistan are. It isn't every day that we see a regime collapse on live TV, it isn't every day that we see the world's strongest superpower flee with its tail between its legs, and it isn't every day that we see evil triumph over sanity and hope.

The Americans invested 20 years in Afghanistan and who knows how many billions of dollars. What began as a revenge operation for the September 11 terrorist attacks and a (failed) attempt to destroy Al-Qaida and its hosts, the Taliban, became an undertaking to turn a failed state into a Western democracy.

The powers tried to turn Afghanistan into a new state, in the West's image, with democratic institutions and democratic processes (as far as was possible in a tribal country, where modernism has not yet ret reached many regions), with a well-armed and well-trained military, and with massive foreign investment aimed at giving the average Afghani a horizon with a better future.

But it would seem that this rough patch of land needs a lot more than that, or that this is simply impossible. The Americans failed exactly where the Soviets had failed three decades previously: in understanding that with force alone, one can perhaps deter and constrain, but it is probably impossible to overturn agendas that have existed for thousands of years.

The writing was on the wall throughout, but the Americans refused to see it. Moreover, when they signed a withdrawal agreement, they did so with the very same Taliban they had sought to get rid of, and by doing so gave it a stamp of legitimacy. From here on, it was a slippery slope: The US declaration that it was withdrawing its remaining forces only pressed fast-forward on existing processes.

It would appear that the United States didn't miss the opportunity to make any mistake and to step into any minefield as Afghanistan lurched into tragedy. Starting with the thought/hope - and it is not at all clear on what this was based - that the Afghan government and its army would be able to resist the Taliban rebels. When the Americans realized their mistake, they refused to launch a massive aerial bombing campaign to assist the government forces and quell the Taliban advance – in practice, the Americans watched from the sidelines. They also erred worryingly in their intelligence estimate of how long it would take the regime to collapse – they estimated three months before the Taliban took over Kabul, but this happened in three days.

The Americans also failed by setting a date for leaving Afghanistan. The IDF's withdrawal from Southern Lebanon in 2000, which became a rapid collapse, is a reminder that these processes get ahead of themselves, and reality on the ground adapts quickly to what lies ahead. Just as in Lebanon 21 years ago, the Afghans understood that the king was dead and rapidly swore allegiance to the new king.

These events will have dramatic implications on the region and for Israel as well. The Taliban will not change its ways. It will return to being a cruel, radical, and oppressive regime that rules with an iron fist, and will host the worst of humanity's enemies. The very same places that served as a hothouse for the nurture of Al-Qaida terrorism in the past will serve that same organization and others to train and prepare for future terrorist attacks in the name of the same murderous Islamist ideology.

Worse yet, the message that has been received in the region is that the Americans didn't withdraw, they fled. The images we are seeing from Kabul are reminiscent of Vietnam in the 1970s. There is no winning country, just a defeated empire. This is a lesson that will be seen and internalized across the world. Its immediate impact will be in the Middle East, primarily in Iraq - the next country the United States plans to withdraw from.

It is reasonable to assume that pressure on the US to withdraw from Iraq will now grow. The Iranians will use the Shi'ite militias that answer to it to attack American forces, and as the body count grows, so will internal pressure within the US for a withdrawal.

The Biden administration has already shown that it is not easy on the trigger and it is doubtful that it will be so in the future. Like previous administrations, it has lost interest in the Middle East and its focus is now on other regions of the world.

It is the negative elements in the region that will gain as a result, first and foremost Iran. Tehran has mixed feelings about events in Afghanistan: On the one hand, it is pleased at the fall of the "Great Satan" from Washington, and on the other, it fears waves of Afghan refugees who will join the millions from that country who have already been in Iran for many years. But taking a wider, strategic perspective, Iran's satisfaction will trump its fears. It will see in the events of recent days proof that even the strongest power blinks and runs.

The implications for Israel's security will be immediate. The terrorist organizations on its borders – especially those operating under an Iranian umbrella – can be expected to become more daring.

This will require Israel to invest more in defense and prevention, knowing that it is alone. This lesson should be remembered in additional contexts – from excessive reliance on peace accords to thoughts of cutting defense expenditure. At the end of the day, we live in a very volatile region, and, as has been shown in Afghanistan, today's hope can in an instant become tomorrow's threat.