Retired US Lieutenant General Mark Schwartz
Against the backdrop of the war in Iran and US
military involvement, retired US Lieutenant General Mark Schwartz
believes that neither Israel nor the United States will succeed in
toppling the regime in Tehran. In a conversation with Israel Hayom
correspondent Itay Ilnai, Schwartz explained why an internal coup is
unlikely, ruled out a ground invasion, addressed security cooperation
with Israel, and outlined what he sees as the next major threat in the
regional arena.
"In
my professional assessment, neither Israel nor the US will fully
succeed in replacing the Iranian regime. The main reason is that there
are dozens, if not hundreds, of Iranian religious leaders who can
replace the Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah, if he is eliminated. No
matter how many successors you kill one after another, there will always
be another one in line. Iran's intelligence and security apparatus, the
Revolutionary Guards, and the Iranian military also have depth. They
are capable of replacing the top of the organization if it is
destroyed."
Q:
What about the possibility of toppling the regime from within? Israel's
defense minister recently called on the Iranian people to take to the
streets and "save Iran." President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu have made similar statements in the past.
"That
won't happen. To stop a coup, the regime in Tehran needs weapons, the
will, and the directive to kill protesters. The Iranian leadership has
already proven it has all of these, and in abundance. For them, the most
important thing is the regime's survival. They have no problem killing
another 30,000 protesters if the regime is threatened from within. I
think Israel has understood this, and the US has not yet fully
internalized it. You must never underestimate the survival capacity of a
state or a society driven by fundamentalist religious fervor, or their
ability to endure. We saw this with Hezbollah, with Hamas, and now with
Iran as well. At the same time, you also shouldn't overestimate the
ability of a popular movement to bring down a regime. I don't buy the
possibility of a coup."
Invasion? "Extremely risky"
Q: What about an American ground invasion? In the US, you call it "boots on the ground."
"Even
if the US were to send ground forces into Iran, it wouldn't help. Look
at what happened in Iraq, for God's sake. Even now, years after Iraq was
supposedly 'liberated,' there are Iranian-backed Shiite militias that
largely control Iraq's security apparatus in practice."
Q: So you don't see any chance of an American ground invasion.
"Absolutely not. It would be extremely risky of us to do that."
The
speaker is retired US Lieutenant General Mark Schwartz, who served 33
years in the United States Armed Forces. It is particularly interesting
to speak with Schwartz at this moment – and not only because he holds
the rank of lieutenant general.
Schwartz
spent most of his career in the Green Berets and is intimately familiar
with the full range of capabilities of the world's most powerful
military and its methods of operation. Having served at the most
sensitive junctions of the American national security system – on the
seam between military force and statecraft – and having led vast
operations involving multiple countries, he knows a thing or two about
the dynamics of war, regime change, and navigating the competing
interests of leaders, states, and armies.
Beyond
all of this, Schwartz has an intimate familiarity with – and a warm
spot in his heart for – the Israeli defense establishment. In his last
posting, he served as the US security coordinator between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority, a three-year assignment during which he was
based in Israel and worked closely with senior Israeli officers. "I
worked mainly with then-Central Command chief Major General Nadav Padan
and the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, Ghassan
Alian," Schwartz said. "Two great guys. Another person I greatly
respected was M., from the Shin Bet, who at the time was head of the
Judea and Samaria district within the service and who recently retired
from the Shin Bet after serving as deputy to Ronen Bar. It was a
pleasure working with him." The person who earned the most praise from
Schwartz was Zohar Palti, a former Mossad official who at the time
served as head of the security-diplomatic division at the Defense
Ministry. "I can definitely call Zohar a friend," Schwartz said.
Exceptional cooperation
Schwartz's
knowledge of the Middle East extends well beyond his time in Israel.
Before arriving there, he commanded commanded US, coalition and select
NATO elements Afghanistan, which included dozens of countries. Over the
course of his long career, he also served in senior positions at NATO
and at US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), where he worked
alongside Israeli counterparts on counterterrorism.
The
conversation with Schwartz – who comes across as a particularly warm
personality – took place last week by phone from Colorado, where he has
lived since retiring from active service in 2021.
Schwartz,
who now serves as a security adviser to the prestigious RAND
Corporation and as a consultant to American security bodies, said he was
not surprised that his country joined Israel "all in" in its war
against Iran. "I was not surprised at all," he said. "We share the same
strategic objectives – Israel and the US – and I am very proud of the
strategic relationship between our two countries. I was very pleased
with the support America provided to Israel throughout the war, and
especially now. The current US president is more hawkish in his desire
to eliminate the threat Iran poses. From the moment he took office, he
expressed his commitment to returning the hostages and reaching a
ceasefire in Gaza, so I was not at all surprised when the US entered the
war."
Something
else that pleased Schwartz was seeing American F-22 fighter jets land
on Israeli soil in the days leading up to the surprise strike on Iran.
"During the force buildup for the Iran campaign, Israel allowed the US
to station fighter jets on its soil for the first time for operational
purposes," he said. "That is unprecedented. We are used to operating in
the region from aircraft carriers, from Jordan, and from other countries
in the area, but we were never able to take off directly from Israel
for operational missions. To be honest, we never had a need for it
either – at least not in my time."
What a coalition looks like
One
of Schwartz's past roles was commanding the US-led multinational force
sent to Afghanistan to stabilize the country following the American war
there – a combined force drawn from NATO, additional countries, and
local Afghan forces. "A massive coalition that at its peak included more
than 50 countries," he said. "In fact, I have been involved in
'coalition warfare' since September 11."
Today,
we are seeing a military coalition operating against Iran, led by the
US and Israel but also incorporating other countries – Gulf states and
certain European nations. As someone with deep firsthand experience,
what does it take for different militaries to work well together?
"The
first thing you need is a deep understanding of your partner's
capabilities – but no less importantly, the areas where your partner is
limited. You have to understand that every country has constraints on
the use of military force, based on what its political leadership
permits and what it does not permit. Operational plans, chains of
command, and use of force must all be built around those constraints.
Even the US has diplomatic constraints – everyone has different rules of
engagement."
Q:
According to media reports, Israel has carried out many targeted
killings in Iran – including that of Khamenei – while the US has
preferred to avoid them. Is that what you mean?
"It
is probably true that Israel carried out those assassinations, but not
necessarily because of diplomatic constraints. In my view, it is because
Israel has exceptional intelligence and an extraordinary ability to
locate senior figures and operatives, thanks to the phenomenal
intelligence network it has built over decades against its enemies.
Historically, the United States has not pursued individuals at the level
Israel has."
From
his home in Colorado, Schwartz watched with astonishment as the US
assembled a massive military force around Iran. "We have sufficient
forces and capabilities to achieve the objectives the president has
directed the military to carry out," he said. "The first objective is
destroying Iran's ability to deploy ballistic missiles – striking
launchers, weapons stockpiles, and all the infrastructure required to
produce missiles and launchers. We can do that through long-range
strikes using both manned and unmanned aircraft.
"We
have the same capability against drone production. Many of the
stockpiles we need to reach are underground, which makes it very
difficult, but we have the ability to strike them and destroy the
current command-and-control infrastructure, communications
infrastructure, the physical infrastructure of the Basij, the
Revolutionary Guards, and the Iranian military. Another thing we have
proven we can do is sink Iran's conventional navy. But there are still a
significant number of sea mines in the area, small boats, and
especially shore-based missiles positioned along the coastline, all of
which pose a threat. We have the military capabilities to strike all of
these, and it is mainly a matter of time. The US also has the backing of
the military-industrial complex, which allows us to continue producing
munitions and resupplying forces deployed in the field."
Between past and present
Q:
On a personal level – as a veteran who until recently was still an
active-duty combat officer – what does it feel like to watch all of this
from the sidelines?
"I
am still in very close contact with my unit and my former comrades in
arms, and I know the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan
Caine, well – we served together in the early 2000s. I absolutely trust
them to manage the fighting, lead the forces in the field, and provide
good recommendations to the political level. At the same time, it is
obvious that you want to help and be part of what is happening, as any
former officer surely feels."
Q: What is the conversation in the US around the war against Iran?
"If
you asked Americans whether they oppose a nuclear Iran or want to see
Iran's proxies disappear, you would get a lot of affirmative answers,
regardless of which political side you asked. But according to polls in
the US, the war is unpopular. One of the reasons is that we have seen
many contradictions between the president, the secretary of state, and
the secretary of defense regarding the war's objective. Many members of
Congress believe the administration was not fully transparent about the
war's goals and the circumstances behind the decision to launch the
operation, and that is why there is a great deal of dissatisfaction
among many people in the US."
Schwartz,
who will soon celebrate his 61st birthday, grew up in Colorado and
enlisted in the military after graduating from the University of Idaho.
"For three years, I served as a tank commander, because you cannot
transfer to the Special Forces until you reach the rank of captain," he
said. Only upon receiving that promotion did he fulfill his dream and
join the Green Berets. He traveled the world – from Africa through the
Netherlands to Afghanistan – and in 2019 was appointed as the US
security coordinator between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
An inside view
When
the correspondent admitted to Schwartz that he had not been aware that
such a position existed, Schwartz was almost offended.
"Of
course it exists. The fact that you are unaware of it is definitely
concerning," he laughed. "The main purpose is to serve as the senior
envoy and coordinator between the IDF and the Israeli defense
establishment, and the Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria. At
the same time, you also oversee all the American security assistance
flowing to the Palestinian Authority, with the aim of training and
developing Palestinian security forces. By the way, I had no connection
whatsoever to what was happening in the Gaza Strip during my time in the
role."
Q: What did you learn about Israel during that period?
"A
great deal. I think the main thing I was glad to see was the level of
intelligence coordination among the Shin Bet, the IDF, and senior
figures in the Palestinian security establishment. The Palestinians do
not want to highlight their cooperation with Israel, for reasons of
optics, and the Israelis do not like to talk about their close
relationship with the Palestinian Authority either – mainly because of
pressure from settlers and the Israeli right. None of this I knew, of
course, when I arrived in the role, but I learned it very quickly."
"I
have a great deal of respect and admiration for the Israeli security
community," he said. "But in the same breath – just as happens in the US
military – mistakes have been made along the way. Ideally, you learn
from those mistakes and correct them."
"I
think the number of uninvolved civilian casualties in Gaza during the
current war is a subject that needs to be examined. And, more
specifically, in every strike, you need to assess how significant the
target is and whether it justifies harming civilians. I am not talking
about targeted killings, but about the destruction of block after block,
street after street, of civilian infrastructure in Gaza. As a commander
who has led soldiers in combat and has also lost subordinates, I
understand the IDF's need to protect its fighters in the field. But I
also think there have been many cases in which civilians in Gaza lost
their lives unnecessarily. That kind of approach does not contribute
much to your ability to advance a reconciliation process with the
Palestinians, which is something Israel will be forced to do at some
point in the future, because it has no choice but to live alongside the
Palestinian people."
Q:
If a ground invasion is not on the horizon, and a coup is not
realistic, what does Schwartz expect to see in Iran in the near term?
"Here
is what I think will happen," he said. "We have severely limited Iran's
ability to fire ballistic missiles and drones, and now all eyes are on
the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran blocks the Strait, it will affect them
too. More than 80% of the Iranian economy is based on oil exports, so
blocking the strait does not serve their short-term interests. But
Iranians have no problem absorbing damage to the economy – they have
largely grown accustomed to it, after years of suffering under
international sanctions."
"Iran
has patience and a willingness to sacrifice. So I think it is
reasonable to assume that we will see Iranian attacks on ships – and
primarily oil tankers – in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside the mining of
shipping lanes. As a result, I think there is a real chance of a
maritime coalition being formed, along the lines of Operation Prosperity
Guardian – the international maritime task force established in
December 2023 under US leadership to protect shipping in the Red Sea
from Houthi attacks – in the Strait of Hormuz, against Iran."
"In
my view, at some point we will return to the negotiating table, once
Iran is ready to reach agreements. I do not see the possibility of a
large-scale ground invasion of Iran. I do not know what that would
achieve, apart from putting the lives of American soldiers at risk."
