In its 2008 election coverage, the October 4th issue of The Economist had an interesting piece which covered (1) shifting crime trends since 1988 when Michael Dukakis was the Democratic nominee for president and (2) the views of Obama and McCain on the subject of crime in America. Here is that article from The Economist:
HANGING FIRE - Neither candidate has talked much about crime. But what they have said is highly revealing
IN 1988 Michael Dukakis, the Democratic presidential nominee, was asked whether he would support the death penalty for somebody who had raped and murdered his wife. No, he said calmly—he had always opposed capital punishment. His poll numbers plunged, and a few weeks later he carried just ten states. The Democrats took a lesson from this: don’t talk about crime and the death penalty, or, if you do, talk tough.
Until recently it was easy to say little. Three years after Mr Dukakis’s comments crime began to tumble. The number of robberies fell from 688,000 in 1991 to just 401,000 in 2004 even as the population increased (see chart). The only thing policemen, mayors and presidents were expected to say was how splendid this was. Apart from a few liberals, who fretted about the expanding prison population, most believed that the problem was solved.
Then something alarming happened. Between 2004 and 2006 murders went up by 5% and robberies by 11%. The increase was driven by some terrifying surges in medium-sized cities. Between 2005 and 2006 murders soared by 56% in Oakland, California; the next year Newark, New Jersey, counted as many dead bodies as it had in the early 1990s. The tide soon ebbed in both cities, but complacency had been shaken. Now two other threats loom, in the form of an economic downturn and a wave of ex-convicts due to be released from prisons. Statistically and politically, crime is back.
Law and order is one area in which John McCain’s reputation as a maverick is misplaced. His views on crime are thoroughly orthodox for a Republican. He favours long sentences for internet predators, gang members and repeat violent offenders. He wants child molesters tracked until they die. He is against "overreaching" judges who stop incriminating evidence from being heard in court. He is strongly against judges who strike down laws like Louisiana’s death penalty for child rapists. He is most opposed of all to those who stop law-abiding Americans carrying guns.
Barack Obama has largely kept to the post-Dukakis doctrine. He has been much quieter on the subject than his opponent, and when he speaks it is usually to take a populist position. Like Mr McCain, he publicly disagreed with the Supreme Court’s ruling on the death penalty in Louisiana. He also praised the court’s decision to strike down a handgun ban in Washington, DC.
Beyond the sound bites, the candidates are far apart. Mr McCain sees crime as a disease and the criminal-justice system as the cure. He thinks the government should tip the fight to the good guys by toughening sentences and building more prisons. Mr Obama thinks the justice system itself is flawed. He complains about the large number of black men in prison, together with one of the reasons for it: the disparity in sentencing for possession of crack and powder cocaine. He hints at a review of mandatory minimum sentences.
He comes up with different solutions, too. Oddly, Mr Obama is much more likely to inveigh against broken families. He links the epidemic of single parenthood among blacks to the high rate of black criminality (this provoked Jesse Jackson to whisper that he wanted to "cut his nuts off"). Like a liberal 1960s sociologist, he sees crime as a product of society. Like a conservative, he blames it on the breakdown of traditional values, not on inequality.
He does, however, think the federal government can provide one thing: cash. Mr Obama says he will restore funding to Bill Clinton’s "COPS" programme, which aimed to put 100,000 extra officers on the streets. He bashes his opponent for voting against the measure. Although the programme’s effect on crime rates has beendisputed, mayors and police chiefs are keen on it. With virtually all large and medium-sized American cities now under Democratic control, expect a lot of co-ordinated campaigning on the issue.
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