Turkey: Israel’s next big threat?
With the new regime in Syria supported by Ankara and the
deployment of Turkish forces, no one in Israel wants to be caught
off-guard.
By Itay Ilnai
Israel Hayom
Feb 28, 2025
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (right) and Syria's interim
president Ahmed al-Sharaa at a joint press conference following their
meeting at the Presidential Palace in Ankara on Feb. 4, 2025.
“Recent events in our region, especially
in Syria, remind us of an important fact: Turkey is bigger than Turkey
itself,” Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, president of Turkey, said in a speech at
the Turkish Academy of Sciences on Dec. 18.
His words should be read against the
backdrop of the balance of terror between his country and Israel, which
have long maintained a love-hate relationship, receiving a significant
twist in the wake of the current war.
This has intensified even further
following the fall of the Assad regime and the establishment of the new
government in Damascus, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has enjoyed long-standing support from Ankara.
This is reflected, among other things, in
the recommendations of the Nagel Committee, which were submitted last
month to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Although the committee was meant to
examine the defense budget, its final report refers to the “Turkish
threat” in razor-sharp words. “Israel may find itself facing a new
threat that will emerge in Syria, which in some respects will be no less
severe than the previous one,” it states.
“The problem will be exacerbated if the
Syrian force effectively becomes a Turkish proxy, as part of Turkey’s
dream of restoring the Ottoman crown to its former glory. The presence
of Turkish proxies or Turkish forces in Syria could deepen the danger of
a direct Turkish-Israeli confrontation.”
The last words need to be read again: The
Nagel Committee warns the prime minister of a “direct Turkish-Israeli
confrontation,” no less, and calls on him to adopt a “completely
different approach of ‘zero containment’” toward Syria, which otherwise
could fall like ripe fruit into the hands of Erdoğan’s military forces.
“We must take into account that the entry
of the Turkish army into Syria could lead to Syria’s rearmament at a
relatively high speed,” the report states.
The Turkish vision awakens
The Nagel Report is the exception that
proves the rule: So far, the change in Israel’s approach to Ankara has
remained largely under the radar. The political and security
establishment in Israel is not interested in irritating the Turkish
giant and is careful not to offend it.
On the Turkish side, however, they are doing the opposite.
As if to breathe life into the bonfire of
Israeli concerns, on Feb. 4, exactly one month after the report’s
publication, the new Syrian president traveled to Ankara, where he met
with Erdoğan at the opulent Presidential Palace.
Reports in the media surrounding the
historic meeting claimed that the two leaders were already set to
discuss the signing of a joint defense agreement between Turkey
and Syria, including the establishment of two Turkish air bases in
central Syria and the training of the Syrian army. In American English,
this is called “boots on the ground.”
There is also an escalating rhetoric from
the Anatolian nation and its leader. “Turkey can invade Israel as it did
in Karabakh [in Azerbaijan] and Libya,” Erdoğan threatened last July, during a meeting of his Justice and Development Party.
Even before that, he likened Netanyahu to Hitler,
and claimed that the Israel Defense Forces is committing crimes against
humanity in Gaza, for which he said the Israeli leadership should be
“brought to justice.”
On that occasion, Erdoğan, who sees
himself as a regional and, to some extent, religious leader called on
“the entire Muslim world” to mobilize in the struggle against Israel.
A military confrontation?
Are we indeed facing a Turkish-Israeli
confrontation, as the Nagel Committee suggests? Could Erdoğan’s warnings
materialize in the foreseeable future?
Turkey experts who spoke with Israel Hayom assess
that in the wake of the war against Hamas and Hezbollah and what
appears to be the weakening of the Shi’ite axis led by Iran, it is
certainly possible that Israel is moving toward a new era, in which
military confrontation between it and Turkey becomes a practical
possibility.
To this, of course, one must add the rise
of the new regime in Damascus, a regime that is largely a proxy of
Erdoğan, which will allow Turkey to establish an overland bridge between
it and Israel and to place, indirectly or directly, a military force
right on its doorstep. If the confrontation between Israel and Iran has
marked recent decades, it is not inconceivable that we are now on the
brink of an Israel-Turkey war.
“The moment the Turks have the ability to
reach us on foot, it’s significant,” said Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a
Turkey expert at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African
Studies at Tel Aviv University.
“Already today, Turkey has almost
unlimited access to northern Syria, and they are talking about paving
roads, railways and infrastructure throughout Syria in the future. If
this happens, then one day their ability to move military forces within
Syria, on a large scale, will be significant.
“Israel needs to do everything not to turn
Turkey into an active enemy because Turkey is not Iran. It’s a stronger
country, with a more sophisticated army, and a much more significant
strategic location than Iran. Not someone you’d want to find yourself at
war with,” he said.
Noa Lazimi, a researcher at the Misgav
Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, added, “Until now,
Israel and Turkey have managed to maintain a certain degree of correct
relations. Even after the Mavi Marmara flotilla episode in 2010, the countries knew how to rehabilitate their relations.
“However, during the current war, Erdoğan
has intensified his attitude toward Israel, which may indicate his
willingness to go further with his imperialist ideology, which also
aligns with internal public opinion in Turkey.
“Recently, Erdoğan has proven that he is
willing to risk what is right for his country for the sake of extreme
ideology. On the other hand, Turkey is a member of NATO and has economic
and security interests vis-à-vis the United States, so I don’t think it
would be wise for him to go all out against Israel in the short term,”
she said.
Fragile relations
Since the Mavi Marmara events, Israel has
been treading carefully to rehabilitate its relationship with Turkey.
The diplomatic effort began to bear fruit in 2022, culminating in a
meeting between President Isaac Herzog and his Turkish counterpart in
Ankara. “I hope this is a turning point,” Erdoğan said at the time.
Shortly after, then-Israeli Prime Minister
Yair Lapid also met with Erdoğan on the sidelines of the U.N. General
Assembly in New York. “And yet,” said a former senior official in the
defense establishment, “we have always had a very great suspicion toward
Turkey.”
This suspicion proved itself after the
outbreak of the current Gaza war. In September 2023, Netanyahu and
Erdoğan still managed to meet on the sidelines of the U.N. General
Assembly, declaring that “our ties are strengthening.”
However, a month later the war broke out,
and the “strengthening ties” ran aground: Turkey froze trade with
Israel, the national airline Turkish Airlines stopped its flights to
Ben-Gurion Airport to the dismay of many Israelis, and Erdoğan, as
mentioned, compared Netanyahu to Hitler and threatened to invade Israel
so that it could no longer use its army against the Palestinians, or
anyone else.
“Who can guarantee that when they finish
destroying Gaza, they won’t turn their gaze to Antalya?” the Turkish
president wondered.
All this happened while Turkey, which
already has one of the largest and strongest armies in the Middle East,
is increasingly strengthening militarily. In recent years, it has become
a force to be reckoned with when it comes to offensive UAVs, developed
ballistic missiles with a range of 2,000 km (1,242 miles) that can reach
any point in Israel, and has even begun to seriously engage with the
idea of establishing a nuclear program (ostensibly for civilian
purposes).
Meanwhile, Turkey supported Azerbaijan
militarily in its war against Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh region,
invaded Libya as part of the civil war, deepened its control in Cyprus,
and effectively established a Turkish army in northern Syria, which
fought against the Assad regime until its overthrow.
“Erdoğan is a leader with Islamist,
neo-Ottoman aspirations, and he sought to brand Turkey as a military
power to elevate its status to a country that can lead the Sunni Muslim
world. On the ground, we see this in many arenas where the Turks are
present today—Azerbaijan, Libya, Cyprus, and, of course, the deep
involvement in Syria,” Lazimi said.
The moves in Syria are the cornerstone of Erdoğan’s expansionist policy.
‘Turkey’s Security Paradigm’
In October 2021, Israeli Foreign Ministry
official Shlomit Sofa, “Yossi” from the Prime Minister’s Office, and
Col. Uri from the IDF Intelligence Directorate published an article in
the military journal Ma’arachot under the title “Turkey’s Security Paradigm.”
According to them, this paradigm “has
undergone substantial changes under Erdoğan’s rule … and it brings to
expression the concept of political Islam from the school of the ‘Muslim
Brotherhood.'”
They contend that Ankara has adopted an
“active and assertive” approach based on political and military
independence, and “in Turkey’s view, Iran and Israel interfere with its
plans and aspirations in the Syrian, Iraqi, Azerbaijani, Palestinian and
other arenas.”
Turkey, the article continues, is also
expanding its influence within Israel, among Muslim citizens of Israel,
and especially in Jerusalem. In this context, Turkey funds Islamic
associations and provides scholarships to Muslim students.
But Turkey has concentrated most of its
efforts, as mentioned, in Syria. The symbiosis between Ankara and the
Syrian rebels, led by the new President al-Sharaa, came to greater
expression in recent months.
After the overthrow of the Assad regime,
the ties between Erdoğan and al-Sharaa became overt: Turkish Foreign
Minister Hakan Fidan arrived at the Presidential Palace in Damascus,
where he met with al-Sharaa. This meeting, by the way, was the first
time al-Sharaa shed his military uniform and dressed in a suit and tie.
“I do not doubt that the suit and tie were
brought to al-Sharaa by Turkey, if not physically then metaphorically,”
said Yanarocak. “Until then, al-Sharaa walked around in uniform and had
the stigma of a terrorist. The Turks turned him into a statesman.”
According to Yanarocak, the transformation
that al-Sharaa underwent also symbolizes the way Erdoğan perceives him.
“Erdoğan looks at Syria as flesh of Turkey’s flesh, and not as a
satellite state,” he explained. “I am convinced that from Erdoğan’s
perspective, al-Sharaa is nothing more than the Ottoman governor of
Syria.”
The cooperation between Ankara and the new
regime in Damascus is worrying, but some of the experts we spoke with
suggest not to lose one’s composure.
“On one hand, al-Sharaa owes his success
to Turkey,” said Dr. Carmit Valensi, head of the Syria program and
senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel
Aviv University. “On the other hand, it’s very clear that he currently
wants to disconnect, or at least reduce, Syria’s dependence on foreign
factors.
“His foreign minister recently said that
they would like to see less foreign presence in Syria, including of
Turkey. At the same time, al-Sharaa is also talking with the Saudis,
Qataris, and, in fact, the whole world, including the West.
Until the situation in Syria stabilizes,
Valensi recommends not rushing to declare al-Sharaa a Turkish puppet, as
his predecessor, Bashar Assad, was an Iranian puppet. “Turkey is not
Iran, and Erdoğan is not [Iranian Supreme Leader] Ali Khamenei,” she
said.
“True, Erdoğan has Ottoman aspirations,
but he is a much more pragmatic player than a fundamentalist who wants
to spread the Islamic revolution. I wouldn’t rush to position Turkey as
Israel’s new enemy, there is room for dialogue and cooperation with it.”
