DO EARLY VOTES EQUAL NEW VOTES ?

by Bob Walsh

Early voting is running strong, like a cat with it's tail on fire.  It is not yet known whether or not these voters are people who would NOT have otherwise voted, are maybe new voters who would not have otherwise voted, or are merely established voters who want to avoid the shit storm on election day.  

My GUESS, for what my guess may be worth to you, is that there will be only a modest number of new voters and when that total vote is counted it will be only slightly higher than four years ago.  

 

I hope I am wrong, but I suspect that many of the younger people who are newly registered will be too hung over, too stoned, too busy or registered back at school to bother voting.  Of course this differential may be made up by zombie voters, but you never know.  

 

The talking heads are guesstimating maybe 150 million, as opposed to not quite 126 million four years ago.  I believe they are severely overestimating.  

 

I could be wrong.  I have been wrong before.  It would not break my heart to be proven wrong in this particular instance.  I am just not putting any money on it.