The Trump administration is considering a significant shift in how some H-1B visas are allocated. In a recent filing to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) revealed it is exploring a “weighted selection process” for applicants under the capped portion of the H-1B visa program.

Currently, the H-1B visa is distributed via a random lottery system, which does not prioritize applicants based on skill level or employer. Each year, 85,000 H-1Bs are granted under the statutory cap, with large tech firms such as Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft often securing a significant share due to the sheer volume of applications they submit.

H-1B Debate Heats Up Between Trump Base and Tech Titans

The visa program has become a flashpoint in US immigration policy. While President Donald Trump’s base has pushed for stricter immigration controls, prominent tech figures like Elon Musk have defended the H-1B system as vital for innovation. Critics argue that the program displaces American workers, while supporters say it helps fill gaps in highly specialized roles that U.S. companies struggle to staff locally.

Though the DHS filing offers limited specifics on the proposed changes, it signals a potential end to the lottery system, especially for the capped portion of the program. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is named as the agency that would implement the new system.

Experts Back Move Toward Merit-Based Selection

Policy experts have long criticized the randomness of the current lottery system. A recent report by the Institute for Progress argued that replacing the lottery with a merit-based approach—such as ranking applicants by salary or experience—could improve the program’s economic value by as much as 88 percent. Connor O’Brien from the Economic Innovation Group called the idea of prioritizing high earners “a no-brainer,” saying it would help attract rare global talent that could benefit U.S. industries.

No timeline has been set for the proposed rule change, and the DHS has not confirmed whether it will impact next year’s applicants. However, with the cap already reached for the upcoming cycle, changes are unlikely to be implemented immediately.