On 3-27-09, I blogged "Drug Cartels Do Not Get Military-Style Weapons From Texas Gun Dealers." I wrote that President Obama, Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano and Attorney General Eric Holder are all claiming that the Mexican drug cartels are getting 90 percent of their military assault weapons from the United States, mostly from Texas gun dealers.
On 4-22-09, I blogged “Not From Texas Gun Dealers.” I noted that the 90 percent figure has been repeated many times, but FactCheck.org says it's bogus: "The figure represents only the percentage of crime guns that have been submitted by Mexican officials and traced by U.S. officials. ... U.S. and Mexican officials both say that Mexico recovers more guns than it submits for tracing ... ". And FactCheck says Mexico only submits those it already has reason to believe came from the United States.
The Obama administration is clearly and deliberately misleading us in an effort to get public and congressional support for the reinstatement of the expired ban on military assault weapons. Yesterday, the Houston Chronicle published a letter from Joan Neuhaus Schaan, a fellow for Homeland Security and Terrorism programs in the prestigious James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University.
Schaan’s letter unequivocally demonstrates that the Obama administration has been throwing out bogus statistics. Of the weapons acquired by Mexican drug cartels, only 20-25 percent come from the United States. And that's a helluva long way from 90 percent. Here is her letter as it appeared in yesterday’s Chronicle:
MISLEADING GUN STATISTIC
The Associated Press article “ATF: Houston effort helps fight gun flow to Mexico” (chron.com, Oct. 1) cited an often quoted but misleading statistic in the debate on the magnitude and significance of the role of U.S. weapons in Mexican violence. Specifically, the percentage of weapons recovered in Mexico that originate in the United States is not 90 percent, but in the neighborhood of 20 percent to 25 percent. The 90 percent figure was primarily derived from congressional testimony of William Neville in April 2009. At the time he stated that of the weapons submitted by Mexico for tracing, which were successfully traced, 90 percent came from the United States.
Looking at the statistics more closely, they paint a different picture. The statistics required to calculate a figure must be derived from a variety of sources, not all of which correlate precisely, but do correlate approximately. The 2008 CENAPI (Government of Mexico's Planning, Analysis and Information Center for Combating Crime) data indicates seizures of 29,824 firearms in Mexico in 2008. Other reports indicate 27,000 to 29,000 weapon seizures. According to the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, in fiscal year 2008, 7,743 firearms were submitted for tracing, and approximately 6,700, or 87 percent, were traced to the United States. Of those successfully traced, two-thirds were U.S.-manufactured and one-third had been imported into the U.S. and trafficked across the border.
While it is clear the United States plays a part, the portion of the responsibility should not be overstated. The figure appears to be closer to 20 percent to 25 percent. Other weapons are believed to come from Asia, Europe, South America and the Soviet bloc states.
Increasingly the weapons arriving in Mexico from other source countries are of military grade, as the cartel arms race rages. These military-grade weapons are not for sale to individuals in the United States, however; to the extent U.S. military weapons have been found, they have most likely been sold to or provided by the U.S. government to another government and subsequently diverted.
What is the result of the 90 percent myth? Significant resources are being dedicated to the weapons trafficking along the U.S.-Mexico border, but anecdotal evidence suggests the searches have resulted in more cash than weapons. The increased searches clearly have a valuable deterrent effect, but the more significant issue is that of military-grade weapons arriving in Mexico on its shores and from Central American neighbors.
Joan Neuhaus Schaan, fellow for homeland security and terrorism programs, Baker Institute, Rice University
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