Fear of getting sucked into a major Middle East conflict and fear of severe oil shortages with skyrocketing oil prices if Israel strikes Iran have the Obama administration and the Europeans shaking in their boots.
REPORT: ISRAEL COULD TAKE OUT IRAN’S NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE ‘IN TWO DAYS’
WorldTribune.com
January 4, 2011
WASHINGTON — Israel could destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure with three combat air squadrons, a report said.
A report by a leading aide to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israel Air Force could destroy most of Iran’s infrastructure in two days. The report by Yoaz Hendel, a senior adviser to Netanyahu, said air strikes could be augmented by naval operations.
“The Israeli Air Force is capable of striking the necessary targets with two to three full squadrons of fighter-bombers with escorts to shoot down enemy aircraft,” the report titled “Iran’s Nukes and Israel’s Dilemma,” said. “However, most of the escorts will require refueling to strike the necessary targets in Iran. In addition, the Israelis can make use of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles from their Dolphin-class submarines.”
The report, published by the Philadelphia-based Middle East Quarterly, was the first by a senior Israeli government official. The publication said Hendel wrote his report before his recent appointment by the prime minister.
Hendel, a military historian, asserted that Israel was expected to target at least five main Iranian nuclear facilities. He cited the Bushehr light-water reactor facility, heavy-water plant in Arak, uranium conversion plant in Isfahan, the uranium enrichment facility in Qom and the uranium enrichment facility in Natanz.
“Military planners may also feel compelled to attack Teheran’s centrifuge fabrication sites since their destruction would hamper the efforts to reestablish its nuclear program,” the report, released in late December 2011, said. “However, it is believed that the Iranians have dispersed some centrifuges to underground sites not declared to the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency]. It is by no means clear that Israeli intelligence has a full accounting of where they are.”
Hendel stressed that Iran has already fortified most of its nuclear facilities. He said Natanz was mostly underground and surrounded by Russian-origin TOR-M1 air defense batteries. Qom, designed to accommodate3,000 centrifuges, has been built into a mountain.
“The Israelis may also choose to bomb Iranian radar stations and air bases in order to knock out Teheran’s ability to defend its skies, particularly if multiple waves are required,” the report said.
Hendel said the Israel Air Force deploys an arsenal of munitions, including the U.S.-origin GBU-27 and GBU-28 laser-guided bunker-buster bombs that could penetrate Iranian nuclear facilities. He said the Air Force was training for deep strike missions since at least 2009 that included air and rapid ground refueling.
In all, Israel might have to attack as many as 60 targets in Iran. The report, citing Israeli electronic warfare capabilities, envisioned few aircraft losses and cited possible attack routes, including flying over Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
“The difficulties also depend on the precise goal of the air strike,” the report said. “A short-term, financially costly degradation of Iran’s nuclear program can be achieved in one wave of attacks, but Israeli defense analysts have estimated that a decisive blow could require hitting as many as 60 different targets with return sorties lasting up to two days.”
The analysis marked the latest effort by Israel to enhance deterrence against Iran. Middle East Quarterly said Hendel’s report reflected his personal view, but diplomats said the study was released in coordination with the Israeli government.
Hendel also envisions that Israel would target Iran’s energy sector in an attempt to prevent a massive counter-attack. He said Iran was likely to use both Hizbullah and Syria in any war with Israel.
“The Israelis will ultimately have to choose between launching an attack likely to spark a large-scale regional conflict and allowing Iran to go nuclear with dire long-term implications,” the report said. “Notwithstanding some disagreement about the immediacy of the threat and possible
repercussions, the large majority of Israelis favor military action over living with the ubiquitous threat of nuclear annihilation.”
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