ROLL OF THE DICE

From PacoVilla’s Corrections blog

GARRIDO DEEMED A "MODERATE RISK" BEFORE BEING PAROLED
Nevada parole board rated Dugard kidnapping suspect Garrido as moderate risk in 1988

By Frank X. Mullen Jr.
Reno Gazette-Journal

Documents from the Nevada Board of Parole Commissioners show the suspect in the Jaycee Lee Dugard kidnapping was rated as a "moderate risk" parolee when he was released in 1988, despite a record as a violent predator who could not control his sexual urges.

Once on parole, Phillip C. Garrido had few restrictions on his activities. He was required to go to California where his mother lived, maintain steady employment, submit to searches and drug tests, get substance abuse counseling and enter a federal community treatment program for sex offenders, records show.

There were no restrictions on his contact with children...In 1999, California Parole and Probation took over his parole from the federal system...

Nevada parole documents from the 1980s obtained Tuesday by the Reno Gazette-Journal, show that Garrido had three parole hearings: May 1984, March 1986 and August 1988. Garrido was still in prison in Leavenworth, Kan., at the time of the 1984 and 1986 hearings.

In 1984, the five-member parole board denied Garrido's parole application because of the nature and severity of his crimes, his previous criminal history, the fact that his crime injured another person and because the inmate failed to show he had reformed. The board further noted that Garrido's release would "depreciate the seriousness" of his criminal behavior and his release might endanger the public.

Garrido's 1986 parole hearing, again conducted in his absence, also ended in a denial of parole for the same reasons noted in 1984.

In January 1988, Garrido was released from Leavenworth early based on good behavior while in prison. He was sent to Nevada state prison and appeared at his third parole hearing Aug. 4. In that instance, Garrido was graded on a "risk assessment" system and received a "moderate" risk grade...(Full text at Reno Gazette-Journal)

Paco’s comments follow:

Risk-Assessment is a roll of the dice.

Just as we know a pair of dice may come up "snake eyes" at any time, we know there are 35 other possible outcomes. So, the "odds" say we are more likely to roll something other than the dreaded pair-of-dots on a given roll.

Risky as the game of Craps is, it is the gambler's best bet--The House has only a slight edge on the Craps table. Even so, MOST of the players lose. That's why casinos put those tables there. Unfortunately, the parole system does not have the House advantage when it comes to assessing risk.

Assessing offender risk-levels is no game. Yet, the stakes are of the highest order--Everyone has a piece of the action when risk levels are assessed. The application of matrices, graded scales, uniform decision making instruments and evidence-based double-speak is CLEARLY A BAD BET. After all, Garrido was deemed a "moderate threat" after abducting and raping his victim for the better part of a day.

Paco isn't familiar with the matrix Nevada or the BOP applied in assessing this offender. I do know releasing Garrido on a roll of the dice couldn't have ended any worse...