By Bob Walsh
Third parties have a notoriously poor showing in the United States. Back in 1912 Teddy Roosevelt had already served as president and was enormously popular. His former protege William Howard Taft had succeeded him but had been a disappointment. The Republican party still nominated Taft in 1912. That is when Teddy launched the Bull Moose Party, which attracted a fair number of progressive Republicans to it. Teddy actually got 27.4% of the popular vote in 1912 as opposed to Taft, who got only 23.2%, thereby ensuring Woodrow Wilson's election. The Bull Moose Part folded up in 1920.
I am not sure if George Wallace actually thought the American Independent Party could catapult him to the White House in 1968, but he got over 13% of the popular vote.
In 1992 Ross Perot got not quite 19% of the popular vote but carried no states and got zero electoral votes. He did, however, prevent Bush 41 from serving a second term as president. Many believe that was his REAL intent, due to a personal beef with Bush. He ran as an independent.
So, what does RFK Jr. want. I have no doubt he WANTS to be President. Nobody but maybe himself thinks he can win this time around. Maybe he is hoping that Joe will stroke out and the Democrats will nominate him rather than Kamala or Michelle. It isn't impossible. I don't THINK he wants Trump to win, but maybe it wouldn't break his heart to set him up for 2028.
If he just wants to be a player his name alone would guarantee that. He would have a seat at the table. But maybe-probably not the seat at the head of the table. His anti-vax credentials make him anathema to the progressive-nanny wing (large wing) of the Democrat-Socialist party. They refuse to admit to error.
Hell, he might not even manage to get on the ballot in all 50 states. He is coming into the game in the fourth inning after all.
My belief, for what that might be worth to you, is that he will pull a lot more voters from the Democrat-Socialist party than from the Republican party. Hell, I might even vote for him myself. I live in California. There is no way in hell Trump is going to take California so a little creative pissing in the soup might be fun.
Scary, but fun to watch. Kind of like a good horror movie. Or the run-up to the 2024 Presidential Election. I am still not willing to bet that Joe will be the nominee. However, that being said, I don't see him leaving except feet first. He LIKES being THE BIG GUY. Dr. Jill LOVES the power as well. He is also still probably sane enough that he knows that holding the reins of power is all that is keeping him personally safe from prosecution. In the old days prosecuting a former president was unthinkable. Now, not so much. And payback is a bitch. After another four years he can safely play the incompetent and incontinent old man, too burnt out to prosecute.
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