TRUMP'S ELECTION VICTORY IS IS PROMPTING A STRATEGIC SHIFT BY IRAN

Is Tehran changing course amid Trump win and Hezbollah setback?

The diplomatic pivot represents a stark departure from late October, when Iran was preparing for a potential strike against Israel. At that time, a deputy IRGC commander had declared, "We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years."

 

Israel Hayom

Nov 28, 2024

 

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei inspects Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) soldiers

 

Iran appears to be recalibrating its regional strategy following Donald Trump's election victory and the weakening of its proxy Hezbollah, the New York Times has reported based on multiple sources familiar with Tehran's decision-making process.

In a notable shift from its typically aggressive stance, Tehran has made several conciliatory diplomatic moves. These include dispatching a senior official to Beirut in mid-November to encourage Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire with Israel, and its UN ambassador meeting with Elon Musk, seen as an attempt to establish communication channels with Trump's circle.

Seven Iranian officials, including one from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), told the New York Times that Trump's Nov. 5 election victory prompted this strategic shift. They cited concerns about renewing confrontation with an administration that had previously pursued a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran.

 

  

Donald Trump stands on stage with Melania and Lara Trump, Nov. 6, 2024, West Palm Beach, Florida  

 

This diplomatic pivot represents a stark departure from late October, when Iran was preparing for a potential strike against Israel. At that time, a deputy IRGC commander had declared, "We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years."

The change in approach also follows significant losses by Hezbollah in its confrontation with Israel. According to Iranian media reports, there is growing discontent among displaced Lebanese Shia communities who traditionally look to Iran for protection.

Mehdi Afraz, director of research at Baqir al-Olum University, offered an unusually frank assessment: "Our friends from Syria called and said the Lebanese Shia refugees who support Hezbollah are cursing us up and down, first Iran, then others. We are treating war as a joke."

Iran's domestic challenges have also influenced this shift. The country faces mounting economic pressures, with the government recently announcing daily power cuts. The death of hard-line president Ebrahim Raisi and the election of moderate Masoud Pezeshkian in July has brought promises of economic reform and increased Western engagement.

Several senior Iranian officials have indicated openness to negotiations with the incoming Trump administration on nuclear and regional issues. "Iran is now applying restraint to give Trump a chance to see whether he can end the Gaza war and contain Netanyahu," said Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian diplomat now at Princeton University.

"Without doubt in Iran, among senior officials and ordinary people, there is a real desire to end the tensions with the West and to get along," Naser Imani, an analyst close to the government, told The New York Times. "Cooperation with the West is not viewed as defeat, it is seen as transactional diplomacy and can be done from a position of strength."