By Bob Walsh
Big Jolly Times
August 18, 2020
Polling is funny. The people who run the
poll WANT it to be right. It helps them sell their services. However,
the people commissioning the polls often have a desired outcome. This
election cycle those results are often a desire to beat Trump supporters
down with bad news which may or may not be accurate. Therefore, until
this week, many polls have shown Joe The Hairsniffer (now known as
Jo-Mala) up by 11-14 points in many battleground states.
Yesterday a couple of polls came out showing Jo-Mala up about four points in the same states. Just barely outside the margin of error. So did Joe suddenly lose 10% for no obvious reason, or was it really not there in the first place?
At this point in the election four years ago Hillary was polling slightly further ahead than Jo-Mala is right now.
Kamala Harris dropped out of the race for the presidential nomination before any primary votes had been counted. She was polling about 2% nationwide and less than 10% in her home state of California, despite the media being hugely in the tank for her. She just plain got zero traction.
We are now under 90 days until the actual election. We are getting closer to the point when the polls may have some relationship to reality. It looks like just maybe reality is getting ready to bite Jo-Mala on the ass.
For the last 30 years the major political parties have paraded their candidate out on the Sunday Shows just before the convention. How many of the Sunday Shows did Jo-Mala appear at? Zero.
The Cancel Culture is still alive and active. They can be counted on to attack people who even hint that they might support Trump. How many closet Trump voters will there be this time around? There were a hell of a lot of them four years ago. Will there be any less this time around? Good question. I wish I had a good answer. It is certainly possible that there will be a significant counter-reaction to the Cancel Culture resulting in a significant bump for Trump.
Even the MSM is starting to ask questions about Jo-Mala’s bunker tactics. So far those questions are polite and indirect, but they are there. They don’t want to derail him for personal-political reasons, but they want to at least SEEM to be real journalists and ask the occasional real question. That way they can pretend to still be relevant. What happens if one of them asks a non-softball question and Joe locks up, or goes 5150 on the questioner, or just starts babbling? How would you like to be the liberal spokeshole who accidentally kills Jo-Mala’s shot at the presidency? You would be on the lost dog desk for the rest of your professional life. Damn, walking on the fence can be dangerous. You might fall off and land in a cow pie.
__________
COMMENT by Tom in Lazybrook
The GOP has been setting Biden’s debate expectations real low. Thats a mistake on their part.
Biden and Harris can run a less interactive campaign because Trump’s daily temper tantrums let them do it. The not so subtle message is “vote for me and I will make the daily circus stop”. For 52% of the country, that alone appears to be enough. For another 6 -10%, it appears to be a compelling argument.
Trump cant handle criticism, so the Dems simply put up surrogates to attack Trump, knowing Trump cant resist attacking the surrogates, rather than Biden, in response. So AOC may have weak approval numbers….but Biden doesn’t.
In 50 days people in swing states will be voting. Every day Trump chews up a news cycle with attacks on truly popular people like Michelle Obama or engaging in outrageous behaviour is a day that Biden and Harris are being left alone. Meanwhile pro Biden-Harris ads are running in loops in swing states.
Its hard to defeat an incumbent President. It has only happened twice in the last century. If Biden pulls it off, it will be because Trump and his supporters did it to themselves.
EDITOR'S NOTE: As I've often said, Trump is his own worst enemy.
Yesterday a couple of polls came out showing Jo-Mala up about four points in the same states. Just barely outside the margin of error. So did Joe suddenly lose 10% for no obvious reason, or was it really not there in the first place?
At this point in the election four years ago Hillary was polling slightly further ahead than Jo-Mala is right now.
Kamala Harris dropped out of the race for the presidential nomination before any primary votes had been counted. She was polling about 2% nationwide and less than 10% in her home state of California, despite the media being hugely in the tank for her. She just plain got zero traction.
We are now under 90 days until the actual election. We are getting closer to the point when the polls may have some relationship to reality. It looks like just maybe reality is getting ready to bite Jo-Mala on the ass.
For the last 30 years the major political parties have paraded their candidate out on the Sunday Shows just before the convention. How many of the Sunday Shows did Jo-Mala appear at? Zero.
The Cancel Culture is still alive and active. They can be counted on to attack people who even hint that they might support Trump. How many closet Trump voters will there be this time around? There were a hell of a lot of them four years ago. Will there be any less this time around? Good question. I wish I had a good answer. It is certainly possible that there will be a significant counter-reaction to the Cancel Culture resulting in a significant bump for Trump.
Even the MSM is starting to ask questions about Jo-Mala’s bunker tactics. So far those questions are polite and indirect, but they are there. They don’t want to derail him for personal-political reasons, but they want to at least SEEM to be real journalists and ask the occasional real question. That way they can pretend to still be relevant. What happens if one of them asks a non-softball question and Joe locks up, or goes 5150 on the questioner, or just starts babbling? How would you like to be the liberal spokeshole who accidentally kills Jo-Mala’s shot at the presidency? You would be on the lost dog desk for the rest of your professional life. Damn, walking on the fence can be dangerous. You might fall off and land in a cow pie.
__________
COMMENT by Tom in Lazybrook
The GOP has been setting Biden’s debate expectations real low. Thats a mistake on their part.
Biden and Harris can run a less interactive campaign because Trump’s daily temper tantrums let them do it. The not so subtle message is “vote for me and I will make the daily circus stop”. For 52% of the country, that alone appears to be enough. For another 6 -10%, it appears to be a compelling argument.
Trump cant handle criticism, so the Dems simply put up surrogates to attack Trump, knowing Trump cant resist attacking the surrogates, rather than Biden, in response. So AOC may have weak approval numbers….but Biden doesn’t.
In 50 days people in swing states will be voting. Every day Trump chews up a news cycle with attacks on truly popular people like Michelle Obama or engaging in outrageous behaviour is a day that Biden and Harris are being left alone. Meanwhile pro Biden-Harris ads are running in loops in swing states.
Its hard to defeat an incumbent President. It has only happened twice in the last century. If Biden pulls it off, it will be because Trump and his supporters did it to themselves.
EDITOR'S NOTE: As I've often said, Trump is his own worst enemy.
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