SAUDI ARABIA'S GROWING TIES WITH IRAN INDICATE THAT IT IS LESS RELIANT ON THE UNITED STATES THAN IT HAS BEEN IN RECENT DECADES

Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical moves

Can the kingdom be trusted to broker lasting peace, especially when its own internal and external challenges, including its human-rights record, remain prominent? 

 

By Amine Ayoub

 

JNS

Nov 18, 2024

 

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (L) togther with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at a November meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation on the war in Gaza

 

Saudi Arabia has long positioned itself as a central player in the Middle East, aiming to influence regional stability and global geopolitics. The Riyadh summit earlier this month, where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman addressed key issues facing the Muslim world, brought this role into sharper focus. However, as the kingdom seeks to navigate complex geopolitical tensions—such as its evolving relationship with Iran, its criticisms of Israel and its involvement in ongoing conflicts like Yemen—the question arises: Can Saudi Arabia be trusted to broker lasting peace, especially when its own internal and external challenges, including its human-rights record, remain prominent?

At the heart of the Riyadh summit was a discussion on Palestinian statehood and the ongoing conflict with Israel. In a notable departure from its previous diplomatic trajectory, bin Salman took a more assertive stance, openly condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza and accusing it of genocide against Palestinians. He emphasized the need for the international community to ensure Israel respects Iranian sovereignty, signaling a potential shift in Saudi Arabia’s stance towards Israel and a move toward closer ties with Tehran.

This stance appeared to mark a clear pivot away from previous talks aimed at normalizing relations with Israel, which had been a priority under former President Donald Trump’s first administration. While Saudi Arabia had expressed interest in recognizing Israel in exchange for security guarantees and regional stability, particularly in light of shared concerns about Iran, the kingdom’s rhetoric at the Riyadh summit highlighted growing divisions in its foreign policy. This shift is significant, especially given that Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement with Iran in 2023, brokered by China, has already reshaped the regional diplomatic landscape.

Saudi Arabia’s growing ties with Iran, along with its criticisms of Israel, suggest a more independent foreign policy that is less reliant on the United States than it has been in recent decades. This makes Saudi Arabia’s role as a potential peace broker more complex. While Riyadh’s attempts at fostering diplomacy—such as encouraging dialogue between Iran and its regional allies—have been welcomed by some, its ability to mediate without bias, particularly in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, remains an open question.

The trustworthiness of Saudi Arabia as a mediator in regional conflicts must be assessed in terms of its internal and external challenges. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical clout, bolstered by its vast oil wealth and strategic position in the Gulf, makes it an important player in shaping regional outcomes. On the other hand, its internal governance and human-rights issues raise concerns about its ability to advocate for genuine peace that prioritizes the welfare of ordinary people, especially those living in conflict zones.

Internally, Saudi Arabia has faced ongoing criticism for its human-rights record. The government’s suppression of political dissent, its treatment of women and minority groups, and the use of harsh measures against activists and journalists, including the high-profile killing of Washington Post reporter Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, remain major points of contention. These issues have led many to question Saudi Arabia’s commitment to universal human rights, especially when its foreign policy often appears driven by pragmatic, authoritarian priorities.

For instance, the war in Yemen, which Saudi Arabia has led since 2015, has been a focal point of international criticism due to the humanitarian crisis it has created. Tens of thousands of people have died, and millions more have been displaced, yet the conflict shows little sign of resolution. The Saudi-led coalition has faced accusations of war crimes, including indiscriminate airstrikes that have killed civilians and targeted vital infrastructure, further complicating its image as a promoter of peace.

This contradiction—between Saudi Arabia’s role as a peacemaker on the world stage and its repressive tactics at home and in foreign interventions—casts doubt on whether the kingdom is a reliable or impartial actor in conflict resolution.

Saudi Arabia’s recent rhetoric, particularly at the Riyadh summit, underscores its desire to reshape its role in the region. However, it is important to consider whether these efforts are driven by a genuine commitment to peace, or whether they are part of a broader geopolitical strategy. MBS’s condemnation of Israel and his call for international action to protect Iran’s sovereignty may reflect Riyadh’s evolving relationship with Tehran, but they could also be seen as an attempt to consolidate power and influence in a volatile region.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s increasing reliance on China as a diplomatic partner has allowed it to broker important agreements with Iran, signaling a shift away from the West. While this shift could help reduce tensions in the region, it also means that Saudi Arabia’s conflict-resolution efforts may be influenced by its strategic alliances, potentially limiting its ability to act as a neutral party.

The kingdom’s role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is another example of this complexity. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia has historically been a vocal supporter of Palestinian rights. Yet, its willingness to normalize relations with Israel in exchange for security arrangements and other benefits underscores the transactional nature of its diplomacy. The apparent contradiction between MBS’s condemnation of Israeli actions in Gaza and his interest in normalizing relations with Israel only months ago illustrates how Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy is often driven by shifting geopolitical interests rather than a consistent ethical stance.

For Saudi Arabia to be truly trusted as a facilitator of lasting peace, it would need to demonstrate a commitment to resolving conflicts impartially, without ulterior motives, and show a willingness to address its own internal human-rights issues. Until such changes occur, the country’s ability to lead a meaningful peace process, especially in its own neighborhood, will remain a topic of skepticism and debate.