REPUBLICAN VICTORY IN OHIO IS NO VICTORY FOR REPUBLICANS

Troy Balderson’s razor-thin victory, if it holds up, in a Ohio district that’s been solid Republican since Ronald Reagan was president, spells trouble for the GOP in November

The congressional race between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O’Connor was still too close to call on Wednesday. Balderson was leading by only 0.9% with 1,754 votes out of 202,521 ballots counted. 3,367 provisional and 5,048 absentee ballots were still to be counted.

We may not know the outcome of this special election for weeks because if the margin is less than 0.5%, Ohio law requires a recount. And even if Balderson wins by 1%, O’Connor can and is likely to call for a recount.

If Balderson’s lead holds up, his victory will be no victory for the Republicans. The suburban Columbus, Ohio congressional district for which this election was held has been solid Republican since Ronald Reagan was president. Trump won the district by 11 points.

The result of this special election spells trouble for the Republicans in November. While the GOP is likely to retain control of the Senate, it would not be surprising to see the Democrats regain control of the House by a large margin.

President Trump, who made a campaign appearance with Balderson, tweeted Tuesday night:

“When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good. After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting. He will win BIG in Nov.”

“Congratulations to Troy Balderson on a great win in Ohio. A very special and important race!”

Trump must have been in a room full of funny tobacco smoke. A great victory? Winning by a razor-thin margin in a recently solid Republican district is no victory at all. Balderson will win BIG in November? When he and O’Connor go at it again, Balderson could lose in November.

And talk about fake news. Trump said Balderson was way behind in ‘early voting’ and that his speech turned voting for the better. While early results from Franklin County had O’Connor leading by a big margin, that quickly changed as more results were announced. But since early voting and early results are not the same, Trump cannot claim that his speech had anything to do with the count turn around.