IDF strike cripples Iran’s missile production, disables air defenses; regime ‘alarmed’
Strikes reportedly render crucial energy sites vulnerable to future attacks, destroy fuel mixers used to make missiles that were fired at Israel; damage may take years to fix
Israeli Air Force F-15 fighter jets prepare to head out for strikes in Iran, early October 26, 2024.
Israel’s widespread airstrikes in Iran on Saturday crippled Iran’s ability to produce long-range ballistic missiles in a blow that will be hard and time-consuming to recover from, and rendered crucial energy facilities vulnerable to future attacks by destroying air defense batteries protecting them, according to multiple reports citing Israeli, American and Iranian officials, as well as satellite images analyzed by experts.
The strikes, which Israel’s Kan public broadcaster said reflected capabilities developed over two decades, indicated much greater freedom of operation for Israeli warplanes in striking Iran if the current conflict continues to escalate, as well as a setback in Tehran’s ability to continuously fire missiles at the Jewish state, which Jerusalem apparently hopes will serve as a deterrent against further attacks on the Jewish state.
The strikes targeted sites that reportedly include the secretive Parchin base near Tehran, which was used in the past for research and development of nuclear weapons, as well as a factory that manufactures drones.
The attacks on the air defenses caused “deep alarm” in Iran, The New York Times reported
citing three unnamed Iranian officials — one from the country’s oil
ministry — since it rendered defenseless Khuzestan Province’s Abadan oil
refinery, Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex and an adjacent
major port, as well as the Tange Bijar gas field in the Ilam Province.
In addition, the report said citing the Iranian officials and three Israeli officials, the strikes disabled three Russian-made S-300 air-defense systems at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport and at the Malad missile base near the capital. This is in addition to a strike in April that took out an additional battery in the Isfahan Province.
The targets of the strikes reportedly included the Falagh, Shaid Ghadiri and Abdol Fath missile manufacturing bases of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as the Parchin and Parand facilities.
Iranian media reported that four soldiers were killed in the early Saturday strikes, noting that the toll could rise.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council held emergency consultations Saturday on how to respond, The Times reported, adding that no decision had been reached and that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was expected to make public comments about Israel’s strikes on Sunday.
Following the attack, Khamenei opened a new Hebrew-language account on social media platform X, formerly Twitter. His first post read: “In the name of Allah the merciful and compassionate.”
Missile manufacturing abilities disabled
The strikes hit at least 12 planetary mixers used to make solid fuel used in long-range ballistic missiles, reports said, with some putting the number of mixers struck at 20.
The Saudi Elaph news site reported, citing an unnamed informed source, that the heavy fuel mixers had been used to power Khaybar and Qassem missiles, ballistic missiles that were launched at Israel in the Iranian strike earlier this month.
The source claimed it would take two years to repair the factory, which was completely destroyed. It did not say where the factory was located.
The Axios news site cited Israeli sources and a US official as saying Iran can’t produce the mixers on its own and must acquire them from China, which may take more than a year. The report also said the development would limit Tehran’s ability to supply ballistic missiles to its proxies, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, both terror groups.
However, Iranian officials cited by The New York Times asserted that the damage to the Islamic Republic’s missile production capabilities was “minor” and short-term.
Iran has the Middle East’s largest missile arsenal and supplied missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, and to the Houthis and Hezbollah, according to US officials.
Tehran and Moscow deny that Russia has received Iranian missiles.
Meanwhile, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed in a post on X that Iran’s nuclear facilities were not damaged during the overnight airstrikes.
“Iran’s nuclear facilities have not been impacted. IAEA inspectors are safe and continue their vital work. I call for prudence and restraint from actions that could jeopardize the safety & security of nuclear & other radioactive materials,” Rafael Mariano Grossi wrote.
Experts analyze satellite imagery
Commercial satellite imagery showed that the strikes hit buildings that Iran used for mixing solid fuel for ballistic missiles, according to separate assessments by two American researchers.
The judgments were reached by David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security research group, and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank.
They told Reuters separately that Israel struck Parchin, a massive military complex near Tehran. Israel also hit Khojir, according to Eveleth, a sprawling missile production site near Tehran.
Reuters reported in July that Khojir was undergoing massive expansion to boost missile production.
Eveleth said the Israeli strikes may have “significantly hampered Iran’s ability to mass produce missiles.” He said that an image from Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, showed that an Israeli strike destroyed two buildings in Khojir where solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.
The buildings were enclosed by high dirt berms, according to the image reviewed by Reuters. Such structures are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating combustible materials in nearby structures.
Planet Labs imagery of Parchin showed that Israel destroyed three ballistic missile solid fuel mixing buildings and a warehouse, Eveleth said.
Albright said he reviewed low-resolution commercial satellite imagery of Parchin that appeared to show that an Israeli strike damaged three buildings, including two in which solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.
He did not identify the commercial firm from which he obtained the images.
The buildings, he said, are located about 320 meters (350 yards) from a facility once involved in what the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and US intelligence claim was a comprehensive nuclear weapons development program that Iran shuttered in 2003. Iran denies having such a program, while Jerusalem says it has never fully abandoned it, pointing to current uranium enrichment levels that have no civilian use.
“Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers,” Eveleth said. “These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense, and will likely have a hard time replacing them.”
With a limited operation, he said, Israel may have struck a significant blow against Iran’s ability to mass-produce missiles and made it more difficult for any future Iranian missile attack to pierce Israel’s missile defenses.
“The strikes appear to be highly accurate,” he said.
What the IDF has said
The IDF said it precisely targeted strategic military sites, specifically drone and ballistic missile manufacturing and launch sites, as well as air defense batteries.
The strikes were carried out in multiple waves over the course of several hours, in various areas of Iran, with the Islamic Republic closing its airspace for the duration and seemingly showing little ability to counter the assault. Strikes were reported in the Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan and Shiraz areas.
The first wave of attacks apparently targeted Iran’s air defense capabilities, both to ensure the IDF’s freedom of operations during Saturday’s sorties, and to lay the ground for further strikes, should Iran retaliate. As the campaign was underway, Syrian state media reported that Israel struck several military sites in the south and center of the country, action possibly taken to enable the IAF to operate more freely in Iran.
The next waves hit the drone and ballistic missile manufacturing sites — including those used in direct Iranian attacks on Israel on April 14 and October 1 — as well as sites used to launch such weapons.
On Saturday evening, the IDF released audio of the radio communications between the chief of the Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, and the commander of the 201st Squadron during the strikes.
“The historic action you performed tonight proved [that] no enemy is too far away,” Bar told Lt. Col. “Shin,” the commander of the F-16 fighter jet squadron.
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