LETTERS TO KAMALA HARRIS AND DONALD TRUMP

A letter to the 47th president

Harris positions herself as Biden's successor, someone who can correct his mistakes. And when it comes to Iran, he's made quite a few. The Iranians are savvy negotiators. Trump might be the only one who can outwit them. An appeal to both candidates.

 

By Nitzan David Fuchs and Makor Rishon

 

Israel Hayom

Nov 5, 2024

 

 

Welcome, President Harris. You have a full agenda, but the Middle East might demand your immediate focus.

Here's a key piece of advice: don't listen to your advisors. It's likely that at the top of your shortlist for National Security Advisor is Philip Gordon, your current advisor. Gordon is an experienced, practical figure with a PhD in international relations and over a decade of Middle East involvement. He has proven experience in strategizing, coordinating, and executing policy. The problem is, Dr. Gordon might end up destabilizing the Middle East.

The Iranians want a new nuclear deal, much like the one Dr. Gordon helped craft in 2015. At first glance, such an agreement seems like just what the region needs: it would halt Iran's march towards a nuclear bomb and allow the U.S. to pivot towards East Asia and China. However, this kind of deal could actually worsen the situation, for two main reasons.

The first reason is that easing sanctions on Iran would give it new resources to bolster its proxy organizations across the Middle East. An Iranian proxy, Hamas, triggered the current crisis. There's no guarantee that Iran would exercise better control over other proxies, like the Houthis or even Hezbollah. If you ease the pressure on Tehran, sooner or later the region will ignite again.

The second reason is Israel's response to such an agreement. It's no secret that the Israeli right-wing isn't thrilled about your election. In government corridors, they likely view you as a strategic challenge, if not a disaster. A new nuclear deal might push Israel to conclude that they're out of options and have no choice but to strike Iran's nuclear facilities to prevent it from obtaining a bomb. If the Israeli government expects hostility from you, it might assume it has nothing to lose and that time is not on its side.

What should you do? The fact that the Iranians want a nuclear deal indicates that sanctions are affecting them. Allowing Iran to maintain its status as a nuclear threshold state while granting sanctions relief would not only enable it to further enhance its nuclear capabilities but also grant it more resources to do so. Dr. Gordon and many within the Democratic establishment will argue that this is the only way to prevent an Iranian bomb and stabilize the Middle East. When Israel responds militarily and Iran destabilizes the region, these same advisors will recommend trying to prevent escalation, continuing the very failed strategy tried thus far. The end result would be that your administration could face four years of regional war in the Middle East.

Instead, it's better to increase economic pressure on Iran and restore Israel's confidence. Accelerate the supply of essential weapons to Israel, while clarifying to Tehran that any deal must include a significant reduction in its nuclear capabilities. A firm approach is the only way to avoid further deterioration.

 

Welcome back, President Trump. I know, you don't really want to deal with the Middle East. But it seems you don't have a choice.

The Middle East isn't just hanging by a thread—it's teetering on the edge. Iran and Israel are openly trading blows, and a regional conflict is underway, even if the previous Biden administration hasn't yet acknowledged it as such. The question is how you can stop or contain the descent into chaos. To succeed, you should understand what each of the main players in this drama—Iran and Israel—want from you.

Here's how it breaks down: The Iranians are actually the simpler side to understand. They can be divided into two camps. The first camp, led by Iranian President Massoud Pazhekian, wants a nuclear deal. He wants sanctions relief and is willing to limit Iran's nuclear activity to achieve it. He won't fully give up Iran's nuclear program, but why not see how far he's willing to go for some sanctions relief?

The second camp, composed of Revolutionary Guard members and radical conservatives, wants the U.S. out of the region and is prepared to use military force to make it happen—not directly, of course, but through proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. We know that you don't think the U.S. should remain in these countries, but if American troops are there, you certainly don't want them under fire.

The two camps aren't necessarily at odds with each other. The Iranians might believe that escalating military pressure will lead you to be more flexible in negotiating a new deal. They're shrewd negotiators, and they won't enter talks without trying to apply leverage on you. You can expect their proxy activity to increase in 2025, even as they pursue a diplomatic track to secure an agreement. The question is, what will you do?

One approach is to ramp up sanctions as much as possible and force the Iranians to concede more and more until they satisfy your demands. But economic pressure will lead Iran to escalate militarily, just as they did in the summer of 2019. In that scenario, you'll need to decide whether to divert expensive military resources to the Middle East, instead of Europe or East Asia. If you're not careful, you might get drawn into a war in the region.

Here, Israel could be useful, but you'll need to clarify a few things to the Israelis. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet will likely want the U.S. to act directly against Iran. You don't want that, and you have no interest in being drawn into yet another endless war in the Middle East. It would be wise to be honest with the Israelis from the start: there won't be an American strike on Iran. But there will be strong American backing for Israel to act against Iran and its proxies.

What you'll want to do is flood America's allies in the region with American-made weaponry: bunker-busting bombs for Israel, advanced jets for the Emirates, and precision weaponry for the Saudis. This would enable them to deter Tehran and, if necessary, confront it themselves. Coupled with economic pressure on Iran, you'd have a strategy: pressure Iran into concessions while trying to maintain stability in the Middle East. And remember, stability in this region is always a relative concept.