The US election from the Israeli perspective
Whoever wins, Israel will enter a critical phase from the day after the election until the next president’s inauguration on January 20, 2025.
Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Who will win the US presidential election?
He won’t admit it, but Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is praying for Donald Trump to win over Kamala Harris and return to the White House.
In private conversations, Netanyahu previously accused Democratic administrations, including the current one, of trying to overthrow him. There’s a lot of bad blood between Netanyahu and the Democratic Party. The Democrats have always been suspicious of him and his team. It’s no coincidence that Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s right-hand man responsible for US relations, was previously seen as a high-ranking Republican activist.
In the case of Trump, Netanyahu must be cautious: there’s an American saying, “Be careful what you wish for.” Trump is unpredictable and could cause Netanyahu far more trouble than Harris.
Let’s start with the fact that this would be Trump’s last term. Unlike in his first term, when pro-Israel Evangelicals strongly pressured Trump to support Israel, this time he would owe nothing to anyone. We could see an American president doing only what benefits him. Trump, in his second term, would be free from Evangelical influence. In this context, Trump might revive the so-called “Deal of the Century,” which includes creating a Palestinian state and normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia. The Deal of the Century envisioned two states, 70% of the so-called “West Bank” for the Palestinians, and 100% of Gaza. Given Trump’s unpredictability, he might decide to broker peace to win a Nobel Peace Prize, which could overshadow all his scandals and legal battles. If it meant forcing Netanyahu into concessions, he’d do it — Trump has no sentimental ties to Bibi or anyone else.
If Harris were to win, it would be her first term, and she would continue to face political pressure from the Jewish community. This could protect Israel if Jewish organizations unite to advocate for it. With all due respect to the Muslim vote in Michigan, the Jewish community there is more than twice as large, and generally, Jews have a much stronger presence in the US than Arabs or Muslims.
It’s fairly clear that Kamala Harris would be less pro-Israel than Joe Biden. A Democratic administration would likely exert strong pressure on Israel regarding the Palestinian issue, pushing for a two-state solution or progress toward a separation that considers Israel’s security and human rights. It’s likely that a Harris administration would increase pressure on Israel to minimize harm to civilians and combat settler violence. Measures Biden has taken against violent settlers could be intensified under Harris. We might even see sanctions against illegal outposts and perhaps against Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Whoever wins, Israel will enter a critical phase from the day after the election until the next president’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. It’s likely that President Biden will increase pressure to leave a “clean slate” for the next president. Both Harris and Trump have stated they will push for an end to the war and the return of hostages.
Regarding Iran, neither Trump nor Harris rules out a new nuclear agreement, but Trump is expected to put more pressure on Iran and be more generous toward Israel than Harris.
When it comes to the Palestinians, Harris and the Democrats have a more pro-Palestinian stance. Harris is expected to push harder than Biden on the “day after Gaza” and on reviving the Palestinian Authority.
What could be the difference between Trump and Harris? It seems Trump would pay more attention to Israeli interests. Regarding the ceasefire (Resolution 1701) in Lebanon, Israel wants to change it and put pressure on Hezbollah, which might be easier with Trump. However, because Trump is unpredictable and the Arabs fear him more than they fear each other, he could force Israel to make concessions.
A key question will be whom Trump and Harris will appoint. If figures like Mike Pompeo return as Secretary of State or Defense, Israel will be the big winner. David Friedman, who was ambassador to Israel under Trump, is also considered a candidate for a high position, possibly even Secretary of State.
Other candidates for Secretary of State include Senator Marco Rubio and Nikki Haley. All of these would be very positive news for Israel. Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt likely won’t hold official positions, but could continue to influence Trump. Netanyahu can count on pro-Israel senators like Lindsey Graham to keep Trump leaning in Israel’s favor.
Harris would be less pro-Israel than Biden but not necessarily anti-Israel. Many fear her appointees will come from the left wing of the Democratic Party, all of whom harbor deep dislike for Netanyahu. Harris’s team will likely consist mainly of Obama allies. Potential candidates for various roles include Phil Gordon, Ilan Goldberg, Wendy Sherman, and Rahm Emanuel.
Both teams share a desire to avoid military conflicts.
One concern for Israel is that a Trump victory could increase isolationist tendencies within the Republican Party. That would be very bad news. Trump is surrounded by people who preach American isolationism and non-interference in international conflicts. This could harm Israel directly and indirectly and strengthen the Russia-China axis. The first test will be the war in Ukraine and continued American support for Taiwan.
Another question is how dominant the progressive wing will be in Harris’s administration. The stronger their presence, the more Israel should be concerned.
Regardless of who wins, Israel will need to closely monitor developments in Washington to adapt to new realities and secure its interests in the Middle East.
No comments:
Post a Comment