Saturday, November 02, 2024

WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN NOVEMBER 5

By Bob Walsh

 

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

 

It is apparently within the realm of realistic possibility that Trump will snag New Hampshire.  I am not counting on that.  It would, however, set the table nicely if it happens.

I think there is no chance whatsoever that Trump will carry New York and a small chance that he will win New Jersey.  I am certainly not counting on it but if it happens it will certainly bode well for the forces of truth, justice and the American way.

I think it is likely that Trump will carry Georgia and very likely he will take North Carolina.  If he doesn't things will not look good for the forces of righteousness. 

Nevada is looking good for Trump.  Arizona is looking good for Trump.  There is a realistic chance he will carry Omaha in the unusual apportioned electoral college system in Nebraska.  That one electoral vote could be critical in some reasonable scenarios.

It is beginning to look more and more like the key will be the Keystone State, Pennsylvania.  It is the largest of the battleground states, electorally speaking.  If Trump takes it there is essentially zero chance for Kamala.  If Kamala takes it there is still a realistic pathway for Trump, but it is kind of twisty and bumpy.

Clearly I hope Trump wins.  Hope clouds reason.  That being said I now EXPECT Trump to win.  He was undercounted in the polling in both 2016 and 2020.  I think-hope-expect that the extremely close race predicted by the polling in Pennsylvania will actually turn out to be a 2-3% win for Trump.  I grant you that might be wishful thinking.  However what is presumably the Harris camp reactions to their own internal polling is important.  They are sweating Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and Michigan.  That means they probably think they have a reason to sweat.

I will be sitting in the back bedroom at my girlfriends house watching the returns and cheering the good guys on.  She will be cheering for the autistic hyena.  What can I say.  I hope Trump wins.  I have $100 on it.

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