IRAN IS WEEKS AWAY FROM HAVING ENOUGH ENRICHED URANIUM FOR THREE NUCLEAR BOMBS

'Iran must be struck systematically now'

Israeli sources are increasingly concerned that we are being left to our own devices when it comes to Iran. According to one researcher, Yossi Mansharof, perhaps now is the time to target Tehran's conventional capabilities.

 

By Shirit Avitan Cohen  

 

Israel Hayom

Mar 24, 2024

 

 

Dr.Yossi Mansharof warns that "Iran must be struck systematically now,"

 

Israel stands alone these days in the campaign against Iran, according to those involved in sensitive security and government discussions. While this is not a new assessment, this understanding has become increasingly clear in light of the tepid actions of the American administration against the increasing Iranian proxy attacks in recent months.

In 2023, Iran succeeded in achieving a breakthrough in the regional hegemony it had been trying to create in the Middle East: normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, strengthening its influence in Syria, a presence in the Red Sea through the Houthis in Yemen, exerting influence over Hamas, and Russia's growing dependence on Iranian weapons in its war in Ukraine.

Despite Iran's clear involvement in the October 7 attack and the understanding that any Israeli attempt to counter its growing influence in recent years relies on Western coalitions with the US and other countries, no one has recently stood by our side in demanding action against the Islamic Republic. This fact does not change even in light of assessments that Iran is weeks away from having enough enriched uranium for three bombs.

A source involved in security discussions on the Iranian issue told Israel Hayom, "The Israeli preparation for developments in Iran is weak." The source further said, "At the moment, it does not appear that we will receive cooperation with the US on the issue of Iran's nuclearization." Another diplomatic source added that nevertheless, "It is unlikely that Israel will go it alone in opening a new front against Iran."

"Iran must be struck systematically now," Dr.Yossi Mansharof, a researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy and an expert on Iran and the Shiite militias, told Israel Hayom. According to Mansharof, beyond the nuclear issue, Israeli action is needed due to Iran's deep involvement in arming our enemies and sending them across all the theaters. "Iran has succeeded in establishing a significant terror network. There have already been shocking publications in Iran that clearly prove Sinwar could not have carried out the massacre without the assistance of the country. Various senior officials and commentators told the Iranian media about the operational cooperation with Hamas in building the tunnel network, the training, and the funding. Therefore, I called for taking out the missile and UAV infrastructure in Iran, as well as striking the Quds Force in the region, and not waiting for the weapons and knowledge to be transferred to Gaza, Lebanon, and other arenas."

On Israel being alone in the fight against Iran, Dr. Mansharof explains: "Israel has no choice, the Americans have a perception that the threat is distant, but it has already been reported that Hezbollah agents collecting information on sensitive targets in the US have been apprehended and upon being questioned, they said they were instructed to act only in the event of war between Iran and the US. In practice, the longer the US delays, the more the Shiite side accumulates capabilities that bring this threat – currently directed against us – closer to America as well. It is a wake-up call. There is no possibility of fighting only in Gaza or Lebanon without taking into account the main Iranian factor behind it. That is doing half the job."

The line between capabilities and implementation

In Israel, it is understood that weakening the radical axis created by Iran embodies significant potential for long-term improvement in the regional security reality. Such a reality would allow moderate forces in the region to strengthen and serve as a counterweight to Iranian pressure. But this requires thinking "outside the box." The lack of focus projects weakness and plays into the hands of the Iranians.

"The Iranians are taking advantage of the situation to advance as the world is preoccupied with Gaza and Ukraine, and they are 'shortening ranges' regarding the nuclear issue," says a diplomatic source. He refers to the words of former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who recently said that Israel does not have the capability to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. According to the source, since Olmert's time, "we have actually improved," but he also conceded that the Israeli actions taken so far against the nuclear program were apparently in the realm of delaying the development of capabilities, not destroying them.

One person who addressed the issue for the first time in months is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Just recently, Netanyahu said, "It is important to ensure that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. We must defeat the axis of evil and the axis of terror of Iran, while simultaneously preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons."

As Netanyahu describes it, actions against Iran are required on two fronts: as the head of the terror axis and the main perpetrator of terror in the region and against Israel in particular, and of course, against its nuclear program. However, while Israel's overt actions in recent months have been against the Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, it has so far refrained from acting directly against Iran due to the American policy of not attacking the country that directly operates terror proxies against Israel, in the Red Sea, and throughout the Middle East. Without American backing, Israel will struggle to act directly against Iran, Israeli officials believe, expressing concern about what lies ahead.

Regarding the nuclear threat, Dr. Mansharof says: "In Israel, they will have to identify when Iran crosses the very fine line between developing capabilities and implementing them. The Americans are so confident that they will recognize this stage, which explains their complacency. They think Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will not dare to cross the threshold. Meanwhile, Israel is failing to convince the West, and particularly the Americans, of the need to form an aggressive coalition that would exert significant pressure on Iran to bring it back to a nuclear deal."

Bringing the US into the game

So while Iran is removing IAEA inspectors from its territory, who themselves say they have "lost continuity of knowledge," there are those in Israel who express concern about its actions in the region.

Dr. Mansharof identifies that at this stage, Iran is realizing its capabilities even after October 7. It was recently reported that Israel is not stopping "assistance" entering the Strip through the Iranian Red Crescent – known for abetting the terrorism of the Quds Force.

It was also reported in Israel Hayom about Shiite militias operating in Syria and infiltrating Jordan on an Iranian mission. "The security establishment identified a Shiite plan to cross into Israel through Jordan – and that's what Iran is building on from the Jordanian front," says Dr. Mansharof. "This presents us with a serious threat from the east as well – which must also be thwarted in advance."

In the northern arena, Iran's power is also evident. "We should have long come to the conclusion that Israel needs to strike at the head of the octopus and not wait for the Americans. Meanwhile, Khamenei believes he has no reason to stop using proxies because that makes him immune from being struck by the US."

In the immediate term, Mansharof reiterates the need to act against Iran's conventional capabilities and that, Israel's plan of action should be based on targeted strikes against Iran's UAV and missile dispositions, based on the assumption that any weapons it possesses will eventually reach its proxies in the region. 

"The proposed Israeli activity against Iran is not expected to lead to war with it, first because Tehran will fear that such a war would play into Israel's hands by giving it a pretext for striking Tehran's nuclear facilities. Second, given the ongoing crisis of legitimacy the regime suffers from, it is highly doubtful it would choose to enter a war that would jeopardize its survival from within. Third, Tehran understands that in a scenario of war against Israel, the US would find it difficult to stand by and would be forced to get involved in the fighting."