As the ongoing waves of Lebanese
projectile and drone attacks on northern Israel demonstrate, targeted
strikes, such as the elimination of high-ranking operatives like Sami Taleb Abdullah,
aka Abu Taleb, on June 11, serve as tactical achievements but fall
short of strategically degrading the severe threat posed by the
Hezbollah terror army and its massive arsenal.
While targeted strikes can disrupt command
and control temporarily, they do not degrade the underlying military
capabilities of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s
response to Abu Taleb’s assassination—firing over 300 rockets, and
UAVs, at northern Israel within 48 hours, including targeting the Plasan
Sasa defense company that manufactures armored vehicle parts,
underscores its capacity to mobilize and implement large-scale, precise
attacks rapidly, and how this ability is not dependent on any single
commander.
A troubling pace
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has been making
increasingly effective use of Almas guided anti-tank missiles, which are
based on Israeli-made Spike missiles that were captured in the 2006
Second Lebanon War and reverse engineered by the Iranians, to target
military bases in the north. Hezbollah has also used precise weapons to
try and knock out Iron Dome air defense batteries. It is using the
current conflict to adapt and learn at a troubling pace.
Hezbollah’s widespread attack on the north
on Wednesday demonstrates that the core threat lies not in any
individual commanders but in the substantial firepower array that is
entrenched deeply throughout 200 southern Lebanese Shi’ite villages, as
well as in Beirut and in the Beka’a Valley.
Tuesday night’s Israeli Air Force targeted
strike in the southern Lebanese village of Jwaya killed the most senior
Hezbollah commander since the war began, and delivered a stinging blow
to the Shi’ite Lebanese terror army, due to the intelligence
infiltration of its activities. Yet this. unfortunately, will not be a
game changer in terms of the threat posed to Israel.
Abdullah, who was commander of Hezbollah’s
territorial Nasr Unit—the equivalent of a division commander—was killed
along with three other Hezbollah operatives in the strike on a
Hezbollah headquarters.
As the Alma Research and Education Center
recently noted, the Nasr Unit, like the Badr and Aziz Units of
Hezbollah, has a designated geographic territory in southern Lebanon
from which it fires rockets, anti-tank missiles, UAVs and other weapons
at northern Israel, and would be in charge of confronting any future
Israel Defense Forces ground offensive.
The death of Abu Taleb, although a
significant moral blow, did not cripple Hezbollah’s ability to retaliate
swiftly and forcefully. On June 12, the immediate response from
Hezbollah was a barrage of over 250 rockets into northern Israel,
causing widespread fires and damage.
Hezbollah’s military-terrorist
infrastructure and expansive manpower pose the largest conventional
threat to Israel. The limitations of targeted strikes as an approach is
becoming increasingly evident, as is IAF’s ongoing campaign to strike at
Hezbollah weapons storage centers and command posts in a limited
fashion, in line with the Israeli War Cabinet’s directive.
Israel continues to prioritize the Gaza
arena and the War Cabinet instructed the IDF to keep the northern flames
from reaching high intensity. The north, meanwhile, continues to burn.
Hezbollah’s military-terrorist apparatus
is unprecedented. Its firepower arsenal can only be matched by a handful
of military powers. Its extensive, well-organized and deeply embedded
army nestles within Lebanese-Shi’ite civilian society. Hezbollah’s
arsenal of more than 200,000 warheads includes tens of thousands of
rockets and missiles, 140,000 mortar shells, precision-guided munitions
and unmanned aerial vehicles. This arsenal allows Hezbollah to sustain
prolonged conflicts and execute precision strikes against Israeli
targets.
Hezbollah’s increasingly effective use of
UAVs in recent days is another reminder of this persistent threat.
Hezbollah is using the current conflict to rapidly learn how to launch
UAVs at sensitive military facilities in Israel.
In recent weeks, Hezbollah has deployed
drones with greater frequency and effectiveness, targeting military
sites in northern Israel and terrorizing northern communities. On June
10 and 11, Hezbollah’s UAV attacks caused significant damage and fires
in several locations in northern Israel.
100,000 men
With 50,000 active members and an equal
number of reservists, Hezbollah maintains substantial manpower, allowing
the group to absorb losses from targeted strikes and continue its
operations with minimal disruption.
Hezbollah’s organizational structure,
Iranian funding flow (estimated at around $700 million per year) and
recruitment capabilities ensure a continuous flow of personnel to
replace losses. Hence, even significant casualties among high-ranking
members can be mitigated, allowing the group to sustain its operations
over the long term.
As Israel has learned from eight months of
war in Gaza, only a ground incursion could significantly uproot such an
entrenched threat, but it is up to the Cabinet to decide, soon, whether
to activate this option or to try and delay the next northern war,
which could also draw in Iran directly.
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