By Bob Walsh
Monday, January 20, 2025
We are 30 days out as I pound
this out on the computer. I would like to think that the coming contest
will be a replay of the blowout of 1984. Ain't gonna happen. I hope
to hell it isn't the fizzle of the vaunted no-show Red Wave of two years
ago. I am trying to be expectant. I will settle for hopeful.
Trump
overperformed the polls in both 2016 and 2020. Kamala is
underperforming many of Biden's numbers from 2020 in leaked internal
polling and even public polls. In addition for whatever reason polls
tend to over-sample Democrats for whatever reason.
At
this stage unless a real, honest to god October Surprise hits there
will be very little changing of minds. Very few people are legitimately
undecided right now. I would also venture to say that Trump still has
serious momentum within his crowd, while Harris is getting the "at least
she isn't Trump" crowd. That is, however, not a small number of
people. It looks like Trump's Buter PA #2 is going to be a HUGE
success. It also looks like Kamal may get splashed by some of the mud
from what looks like a Helene cluster-fuck. Even if it really isn't, it
kinda-sorta LOOKS like it is, That is what is important.
Kamala
STILL isn't giving any real answers, and is getting damn few real
questions. Joe is still talking about how Kamala was glued to his hip
during the last 3 1/2 years. It is beginning to look more and more like
that is NOT a wonderful place for her to be. Joe is still looking like
an idiot most of the time. His "what storm" response yesterday didn't
earn him any brownie points.
The
teamsters and the firefighters sitting it out hurt Kamala. The
longshoremen going back to work help. Of course that might simply be a
non-negative and not a positive. Astute watchers will remember Joe
saying that he viewed it as a labor relations issue and intended to not
jump in with the force of government.
It
still looks like the election will be decided by fewer than 100,000
total votes in seven or fewer states. Michigan is actually looking
pretty good for Trump. Pennsylvania is still looking decent. Arizona
is looking very good. Georgia and North Carolina are looking good, with
some caveats. If FEMA continues to screw the pooch that will help
Trump. It will be interesting to see what effect the storm has on the
voting process. It may take an EXTRAORDINARY EFFORT to get to the
voters in W. Virginia, Tennessee. Georgia and N. Carolina. What will
the authorities, and maybe eventually the courts, do if it looks like
people physically are not allowed to vote due to the storm?
Just
one perverse question. Do you think that if Kamal loses Joe will step
down so that Kamala can semi-legitimately be the first female president,
due 100% to the goodness of his soul? I kinda doubt it. From what I
hear he (and Jill and Hunter) regard her and her peeps as a bunch of
backstabbing asswipes.
Damn, politics is fun. VOTE EARLY AND OFTEN. The Republic is at stake. (That middle part is just a joke. Probably.)
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