In a move by the outgoing Biden
administration that could only be interpreted as detrimental to Israel,
the U.S. government sold Egypt some $5 billion in military hardware. The
arms were offensive weapons that could only be aimed against the Jewish
state. Egypt may not be Iran in terms of its hostility towards Israel
and the United States, but its relationships with Iran, China and Russia
have been gradually warming, while the Egyptians have been protective
of Hamas in its war against Israel. Equally troubling, Egypt and Qatar
have been the United States’s “go-to” countries in the Israeli hostage
negotiations. Egyptian and Qatari elites and their “streets” consider
Israel to be their chief enemy.
Let’s begin with the “cold peace” that
Egypt initiated against Israel soon after the 1979 peace treaty that
has, in recent years, turned even “colder.” In the interim, Egypt has
been building up its military forces in the Sinai Peninsula, which is a
violation of the Camp David Peace Accords. Egypt is also building
tunnels across the Suez Canal to ferry its troops in what might be a
surprise attack against Israel. Cairo has quadrupled its arms storage
facilities along the canal, once again for use against Israel.
The Egyptian government mouthpiece, Al-Ahram,
reported on Dec. 21 that the U.S. State Department “informed Congress
it had approved the sale of $4.69 billion in equipment for 555 U.S.-made
M1A1 Abrams tanks possessed by Egypt, $630 million for 2,183 Hellfire
air-to-surface missiles and $30 million in precision-guided munitions.
The sale ‘will support the foreign policy and national security of the
United States by helping to improve the security of a Major Non-NATO
Ally country that continues to be an important strategic partner in the
Middle East.’ ”
The State Department’s argument that the
sale of weapons to Egypt is “to help improve the security of a major
non-NATO ally” is ridiculous. Who exactly is threatening Egypt’s
security? It is not Sudan, Libya or Ethiopia. Do President Joe Biden and
Secretary of State Antony Blinken believe that Israel is threatening
Egypt’s security? This ill-conceived idea is one that directly threatens
Israel.
Geopolitically, the Middle East today
resembles the historic competition of the 19th-century European powers.
Egypt isn’t saddened by the damage Israel inflicted on Shi’ite Iran and
Hezbollah. At the same time, Egypt would like to bring Israel down and
emerge as a dominant regional power. Egypt and Iran have stepped up
their diplomatic contacts since Hamas launched its war against Israel on
Oct. 7, 2023.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was in
Cairo recently for the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation summit
(which includes Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, Iran, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Bangladesh and its most recent member, Azerbaijan). It was the
first time in more than a decade that an Iranian president was in
attendance in Egypt.
The incoming Trump administration needs to
keep a watchful eye on the ever-closer relations Egypt is developing
with China, Russia and Iran. They also need to weigh not just the recent
Biden administration’s package to Egypt but that it receives $1.3
billion annually in U.S. aid and received $235 million of military aid
in 2023. All of this despite Egypt’s dismal human rights record.
According to a 2021 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and cited by the Eurasia Review,
Egypt spent $15 billion on weapons purchases between 2014 and 2017, 60%
of which were purchased from Russia. In the summer of 2020, Egypt
received five Su-35 aircraft despite a threat of sanctions by the United
States. In addition to not following through on sanctions, the United
States has continued to send Egypt economic and military aid.
Egypt’s ruling circles see Russia as a key
foreign-policy ally even though Egypt has been one of America’s most
important partners in the region for the past five decades. Cultivating
good relations with Moscow is an important pillar of Egypt’s foreign
policy. Egyptians believe that strategic relations with Russia will help
their country balance relations with other major powers, primarily the
United States and the European Union, which have criticized Egypt for
its human-rights violations. Unlike his American and European
counterparts, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not concerned about
issues of human rights and democracy in Egypt or elsewhere.
The results of a Washington Institute poll show
that a majority of Egyptians view relations with China as more
important than relations with the United States. In 2014, the two
countries signed a “strategic partnership agreement,”
promising cooperation in the fields of defense, technology, the
economy, counterterrorism and fighting cybercrimes. During Chinese
President Xi Jinping’s visit to Egypt in 2016, 21 more agreements were
signed, including an agreement for $15 billion of Chinese investment in
various projects.
China mediated a peace agreement between
Iran and Saudi Arabia, which then encouraged Egyptian President Fattah
Abdel el-Sisi to tighten relations with China. As noted, Chinese
influence in Egypt extends beyond the economic sphere.
Egypt isn’t a genuine friend of the United
States and never will be. Egypt is the original home of the Muslim
Brotherhood. The majority of Egyptians hate Israel and would gladly
discard the peace treaty with Israel if given a choice. That same
majority sympathizes with the Muslim Brotherhood. What happened to
Bashar Assad in Syria might happen to el-Sisi. A revolution engineered
by the Muslim Brotherhood that removes el-Sisi isn’t a farfetched
scenario. But in the case of Egypt, billions of dollars of sophisticated
U.S. arms and dollars would fall into the wrong hands.
In the Bible (Isaiah 36:6), the prophet
Isaiah warns against trusting Egypt as a friend or ally. As it is
written, “Behold you have depended upon the support of this splintered
reed, upon Egypt, upon which a man will lean, and it will go into his
palm and puncture it; so is Pharaoh the king of Egypt to all who trust
in him.”
El-Sisi may not be a pharaoh, but Egypt is still a broken reed not to be trusted.
1 comment:
Sometimes you don't get a friend and you have to settle for an ally. Sometimes not even that.
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