In the days leading up to Chanukah, the
rapidly intensifying battle in Samaria made clear that sooner rather
than later, Samaria and Judea will soon replace Gaza, Lebanon, Iran,
Syria and Yemen as the central battlefield in this multifront war.
They will also be the place where the war is won. Or lost.
Jenin, the northernmost Palestinian city,
has long been the terror capital of Samaria. On Monday, footage from the
city showed U.S.-backed Palestinian Authority security forces walking
around holding RPGs. For the past week or so, the P.A. has been fighting
yet another half-hearted battle against Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror
forces in the city. The P.A. is engaging in the fight for one main
reason—to secure the continued support of the Americans and the IDF High
Command.
The P.A. is largely an empty shell. Its
forces, which receive lavish funding, training and arms from the United
States control very little of the areas ostensibly under its oversight.
According to a survey
taken in September by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey
Research (PCPSR), only 18% of the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria
support the P.A. On the other hand, 85% of Palestinians in Judea and
Samaria expressed satisfaction with Hamas’s war efforts, and 56% said
that armed struggle is the best way for the Palestinians to achieve
their goals. Hamas enjoys 37% of public support. The rest don’t know who
they support. In head-to-head races, Hamas bests the P.A. at every
turn.
With next to no public support, the P.A.’s
forces have opted to put on a sound and light show of fighting Hamas
and Islamic Jihad terror forces in Jenin to prove their relevance not so
much to the public, but to their primary sponsors: the IDF General
Staff and the Americans.
For the past several months, the Netanyahu
government has repeatedly ordered the General Staff to take over the
principle governing function in Gaza: the distribution of humanitarian
aid. But Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, the IDF Chief of the General Staff, has
staunchly refused to carry out the order. For Halevi and several of his
subordinates, avoiding direct Israeli control over the population in
Gaza has been a central rationale for directing the fighting on the
ground. Their operating concept foresees the same P.A. that has no
control over Judea and Samaria entering Gaza and taking over governance
from Hamas at the end of the war.
In part, their judgment is informed by
pressure from the Biden administration, which has insisted that Israel
agree to transfer governing control over Gaza to the P.A. in a bid to
renew the so-called “peace process” that is supposed to bring about the
establishment of a Palestinian state in Gaza, Judea, Samaria and
Jerusalem. In part, it is informed by the General Staff members’
ideological commitment to the establishment of a Palestinian state,
which despite the invasion on Oct. 7, 2023, and their total failure to
foresee and so prevent the event, remains the primary strategic end they
seek.
On Wednesday, Col. (res.) Ronen Cohen, the
former deputy chief of the assessment department of IDF Military
intelligence, argued on his X account that the death this week of three
soldiers in the Kfir Brigade in Beit Hanoun in Gaza on Monday morning
was the consequence of Halevi’s abject refusal to assert actual control
over any part of Gaza. The three were killed when an IED was detonated
on them after they carried out an operation in the town, located a
stone’s throw from the border with Israel.
The same rationale, informs the IDF
decision to permit and even encourage P.A. forces to operate in Jenin.
It isn’t simply that those forces have no public support. They share the
goals of Hamas and Islamic Jihad—to annihilate Israel through armed
struggle. Last March, the Regavim movement published
a paper based entirely on official statements issued by the P.A. and
Fatah, which celebrated more than seventy terror attacks against Israel
carried out by P.A. security forces.
The General Staff has prevented the
publication of data on P.A. involvement in terrorism for decades. And
this makes sense. If the generals admit that the P.A. forces are
terrorist forces, then their entire conceptual framework is destroyed.
So groups like Regavim have been forced to cull the Internet for Fatah
and P.A. statements revealing that involvement to expose the open secret
that cannot be discussed if the “two-state solution” is to be
maintained. And so, on cue, shortly after the footage of the P.A. forces
in Jenin walking around with RPGs was published, the IDF insisted that
those weren’t weapons in use. The P.A. guys had just seized the RPGs
from Hamas. They won’t use them. Nothing to see here.
The strategic implications of the RPG
story, however, are too big to sweep under the rug. Their presence in
Judea and Samaria requires the IDF to reassess its battle plans. Those
RPGs endanger armored forces. RPGs were one of the primary weapons Hamas
forces used to massacre civilians in the communities they overran on
Oct. 7 and to prevent IDF forces from rescuing them. The presence of
RPGs in Judea and Samaria requires a shift not only for IDF operational
planning but in defensive planning for the Israeli communities in Judea
and Samaria, as well as Jerusalem, the Sharon and Gilboa regions.
Erdoğan: ‘Patience brings victory’
Then there is the fighting in Tulkarem.
While the P.A. fritters away whatever residual support it enjoys among
the public by fighting a fake battle against Hamas in Jenin, IDF forces
are fighting an actual battle in two hardened terror hubs in the city of
Tulkarem, which is strategically located adjacent to the Cross Israel
Highway, and near the cities of Kfar Yona and Netanya. On Tuesday night,
an APC carrying the Menashe Regional Brigade commander, Col. Ayub
Kayuf, and Judea and Samaria Division commander, Brig. Gen. Yaki Dolf,
was hit by an explosive device. The device was buried beneath the
pavement and detonated remotely. Kayuf sustained minor injuries while
Dolf emerged unscathed.
The incident exposed a reality that was
little known among the public. The Hamas terror forces that control
Tulkarem have transformed the city into an IED hub. Before IDF forces
carry out open operations, based on intelligence information, commanders
deploy bulldozers in the areas of planned operations to remove the top
level of pavement. According to Channel 14, in recent days, 12 IEDs were exposed in this manner.
In the case of Dolf and Kayuf, the IDF had
no prior information that IEDs were in the area, so no bulldozers were
deployed ahead of their patrol. The presence of IEDs—buried Iraq-, Gaza-
or Lebanon-style under roads, along with the presence of RPGs in
battle—makes clear the frightening dimensions of the threat that P.A.,
Hamas and Islamic Jihad forces in Judea and Samaria pose to Israel. This
is not a situation that Israel can allow to fester. The quantity of
arms sloshing around Judea and Samaria—from Iran, the United States,
Europe, Turkey and Jordan, and the public mobilization on behalf of a
war of annihilation against Israel are too great to brush aside.
Had the Palestinians managed to kill Dolf
and Kayuf on Tuesday night as they intended, the government would have
had no choice but to send divisions of forces to Judea and Samaria to
begin a massive operation in the areas. That they survived the attack
cannot blind anyone to the fact that such an offensive is only a matter
of time. And the government, the public, and, most importantly, the IDF
need to be prepared for the fight before those RPGs start blowing up
tanks and tearing apart neighborhoods in cities and towns across the
country.
The stakes are not local. This isn’t a war about Samaria or Judea, per se.
Hamas called its Oct. 7 invasion of Israel
the “Al Aqsa Flood.” Its purpose was to pave the way for the
destruction of Israel through the conquest of Jerusalem. Hezbollah’s plans
for the invasion of the Galilee presented the coming battle as the
battle for Jerusalem, not Haifa. Iran seeks Israel’s destruction to
“liberate Jerusalem.”
This week, a clip
of a speech by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan showed his
supporters urging him to “take us to Jerusalem.” He responded: “Patience
brings victory.” Erdoğan’s proxies that have taken over Syria have
similarly stated that their goal is the conquest of Jerusalem.
Israel’s control over Samaria and
Jerusalem is what secures its sovereignty in Jerusalem. If the
Palestinians seize control over these areas, then the fall of Jerusalem
becomes a foregone conclusion. The military, political and ideological
battle for these areas is the battle for Jerusalem.
The inevitability of this battle was
apparent to anyone listening to what the P.A. has been telling the
Palestinians since the 1990s. Every single leader—from Yasser Arafat to
Mahmoud Abbas to the last of the minor P.A. officials and
terrorists—told us and continue to tell us that they are fighting for
Jerusalem.
The situation has become untenable
Israel’s ruling elites—from the IDF
General Staff to Shin Bet leadership, from the media to the legal system
to academia—have refused to admit this state of affairs. Instead, they
have insisted on an artificial distinction between the “moderate” P.A.
and the “radical” Hamas and Islamic Jihad forces. In their efforts, they
have been supported by successive U.S. administrations. The unbridled
hostility of the European Union, the United Nations and other
international actors towards Israel as a whole has been used by Israel’s
leftist ruling class and Washington as a means to coerce successive
governments and the unwilling public to maintain faith with the fiction
that the P.A. is a stabilizing force, whether in Judea and Samaria or in
the Gaza Strip.
Most of their efforts across the years
were directed not against the Palestinians calling for the conquest of
Jerusalem. Their chief foe (and the focus of their anger) has always
been the Israelis—IDF officers, politicians, journalists, academics and
regular citizens who have insisted on listening to the Palestinians and
acting accordingly.
If the war is to end, Israel must win this
battle in a manner that is not open to question. To win this war,
Israel needs to dismantle not only Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad,
but the governing body that has cultivated and grown these forces. To
win the battle for Jerusalem, Israel must dismantle the P.A.’s security
forces and the notion that they are moderates, or that they aren’t
fighting for Jerusalem.
The presence of advanced weapons and tens
of thousands of men under arms supported by a society mobilized to use
them to kill thousands of Israelis at the first opportunity has made the
situation untenable. The government is well-advised to delay the
reckoning until after Donald Trump becomes president in January and
until after Halevi’s expected resignation in February. It is clear that
the battle cannot be won so long as the IDF is led by a man who refuses
to abandon the strategic conception that the P.A. is Israel’s partner,
not its enemy.
In the past year and three months of war,
the overwhelming sense has been that we are fighting for the survival
not only of Israel but of the Jewish people. There is poetic justice,
then, in the fact that the approaching battle for Jerusalem has come
into view just as we celebrate the festival of Chanukah, the time when
the Jews fought both their enemies and their internal demons to secure
their religious freedom and restore Jewish sovereignty over Jerusalem.
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