Friday, December 27, 2024

I DOUBT THERE WILL BE ANY HOSTAGE DEAL BEFORE TRUMP TAKES OFFICE

Hostage deal in crisis

Difficulties and prospects of a hostage deal.

 

By Yossi Aloni 

 

Hostage deal

Hostages pictured at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv. 

 

The hostage deal negotiations have stalled, but the mediators and the Americans have not yet given up hope. They believe they can bridge the differences to reach an agreement before Trump’s inauguration in the White House on January 20, 2025.

Meanwhile, the Israeli negotiating team, made up of senior officials from the Mossad, Shin Bet and IDF, has returned from Doha after ten days of intense negotiations.

Hamas, it turns out, has rejected Israel’s demand to provide a list of the live hostages it holds. Senior Hamas officials claimed they had provided a partial list, but were having difficulty contacting all the organizations holding hostages due to the situation in the Gaza Strip. They also stated that Hamas is ready to provide a full list of live hostages once the situation in Gaza has stabilized and after a ceasefire.

Israel accuses Hamas of lying and deceiving the mediators. Israel recalls that in November 2023, Hamas falsely claimed that it did not have 7 living women as captives, while Israeli intelligence knew for sure that these women were alive, which later turned out to be true.

Israel insists that in the humanitarian phase, 24-25 live hostages will be released out of the 33 hostages who fall into the humanitarian category. Hamas claims that to reach this number, injured young men (soldiers) must also be released, which, however, do not fall into the “humanitarian” category. According to people familiar with the details, Hamas initially agreed to release them, but later withdrew this commitment.

Israel does not understand Hamas’s position and suspects that it is hesitant to give up “the treasure” of half of the living hostages. On the other hand, Israel argues that Hamas would still keep 25 “Gilad Shalits” even after the release of half of the hostages – and recalls that Israel released 1,027 prisoners for Gilad Shalit. Israel blames Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya Sinwar’s brother, who has stepped into his role and shown no flexibility.

There is also sharp criticism of Qatar, which has repeatedly disappointed, and now announced an imminent agreement; but as before has not delivered and has not put any real pressure on Hamas.

American sources warn against jumping to conclusions. “Patience is needed. The talks are not over yet. An agreement is possible, even if it does not come tomorrow morning,” they said. The Americans believe Hamas is trying to force further concessions at the last minute.

 

A rally calling for the release of the Israeli hostages held captive by Hamas in Gaza, at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, December 21 2024.
 

Egyptian sources told the newspaper Al-Arabi al-Jadid that negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza are nearing completion. Agreements have been reached on the sticking points of the last round of negotiations. One point that is expected to be resolved is the lists of hostages and prisoners.

Sources familiar with the details of the negotiations on the hostage deal are distressed as the agreement seems to be receding.

“We hear the statements of the defense minister about security control in Gaza, that the IDF will remain in control and there will be no Hamas – and that is what makes you explode. It is clear that we are in critical days when decisions must be made that require flexibility and goodwill. These are the crucial points of the negotiations. But when you declare that the war will not end, there will be no movement and the army will remain in Gaza, it is like a stab in the eye of the hostages. Who did this statement harm? Hamas or the hostages? It is simply shocking. This does not mean that there will be no agreement. It is still reversible. But these statements by the defense minister after those of the prime minister in the interview with the Wall Street Journal do not help the matter.”

The sources added: “The Hostage deal has not failed yet. If the final pressure, goodwill, flexibility and faith are necessary, then you approach this agreement with the perspective that it will enable the second and third stages and also bring the soldiers back. However, if you tell Hamas that there will be no second and third part and we will take control – why should they do the first part? The impression is that this is damaging the negotiations and could significantly affect the chances of the hostages’ return.”

The Prime Minister’s Office issued a sharp response to what it called “false briefings from anonymous sources in the negotiating team”: “Another echo of Hamas propaganda by anonymous sources in the negotiating team who are acting out of a political agenda. Prime Minister Netanyahu is committed to the return of all our hostages home and to the achievement of the wider war goals in Gaza. It would be better if these informants also focused on the sacred task of returning our hostages and stopped playing into the hands of the Hamas terrorist organization.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held security consultations on Thursday evening to decide how to proceed with negotiations on the hostage deal and whether Israel should be flexible and agree to a settlement without receiving a full list of all the hostages.

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