Monday, April 24, 2017


by Bob Walsh

Based on exit poling and early results it seems very likely that centrist and pro-E.U. candidate Emmanuel Macron and nativist-populist Marine Le Pen will be in the run off for president in two weeks. Each candidate will likely get between 22% and 25% of the votes when all is said and done.

One should not be willing to write Le Pen off. Like Trump I suspect there will be a large closet Le Pen vote. Many of those who vote for her will not tell you they will do so. It simply isn't "cool" to vote for her. The same could have been said about trump. Right up until the Florida vote started coming in the talking heads were almost uniformly laughing at the idea of a Trump win. I don't think they will be laughing at Le Pen..

It is only 1230 Pacific Coast Time Sunday as I write this. It's isn't a done deal yet. It does, however, look like this is the way it's going.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The final results are in.

Emmanuel Macron received 23.75 percent of the vote.

Marine Le Pen received 21.53 percent.

New polls show Macron will win the runoff with 64 percent of the vote.


Anonymous said...

Polls? Remember the last US Presidential election. I think it's obvious that like the media, the polls are slanted. I wouldn't believe one of them.

bob walsh said...

People lie to pollsters, for various reasons. Especially when dealing with "unpopular" candidates or issues. Modern polling is mathematically sound, but only if you are getting reliable information into the front end of the process.