Wednesday, April 19, 2017


Professor who predicted Trump's shock win explains he is headed toward impeachment

By Nikki Schwab

Daily Mail
April 18, 2017

While polls, pundits and professors all called the 2016 election wrong, American University history professor Allan Lichtman stood out by predicting a win for Donald Trump.

Soon after, he made another astonishing prediction, that Trump would get impeached. In a new interview with GQ, he's standing behind that assessment and giving it some meat.

'I believe he is more vulnerable than any other president in the history of the nation,' Lichtman said.

Lichtman laid out his thoughts in a new book, 'The Case for Impeachment.'

Unlike his election prediction, his impeachment theory isn't based on a formal methodology because only two presidents have been impeached, while Richard Nixon, resigned before the House of Representatives could do such a thing.

Instead Lichtman said he did a 'deep study of history,' looking at the parallels Trump possesses to those presidents who have been impeached.

He added that he looked at, 'a study of the process of impeachment; a study of Trump's vulnerabilities, particularly those that have arisen over the course of his business career; and a look at the early weeks of his tenure in the White House.'

Looking at Nixon, Lichtman said the parallels between the late president and the current occupant are 'quite chilling.'

'Trump is very thin-skinned and considers the media to be his enemy. He believes in being on the attack at all times, and in the important of getting even with people,' Lichtman said. 'He has a penchant for lying and for deflecting controversy instead of meeting it head-on.'

'Finally, like Nixon, Trump seems bereft of any guiding principles, other than doing what is best for himself,' the professor continued. 'This lack of guiding principles, for a president, is very dangerous.'

Lichtman suggested Trump could get nailed on a variety of things, included the must talked-about Russian election controversy.

'There is still a lot of smoke around the campaign's Russia links,' Lichtman said. 'Carter Page, Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, Jeff Sessions and General Flynn, among others. I think there could be come fire there.'

The professor also pointed out that Trump could get in trouble for business conflicts of interest through the Emoluments Clause.

Other experts have often cited that part of the Constitution as well, when suggesting the current president could be legally impeached.

Lichtman said pushing Trump out the door could be beneficial for Congressional Republicans, who are charged with impeachment and the trial.

'They would love to have Mike Pence in the White House!' Lichtman said of Republicans, especially those in the House.

Pence will be able to pick his own vice president and that could be current House Speaker Paul Ryan, who was the party's vice presidential nominee in 2012: 'The ultimate dream team for Republicans.'

'Assuming Democrats are on board, it would only take about two dozen Republicans to deflect from their majority to secure enough votes to impeach,' Lichtman pointed out.

As for why Lichtman originally picked Trump, the D.C. professor said he had a system, he called 'The Keys to the Presidency,' which essentially looked at the strength of the incumbent president's party.

He tuned out the larger narrative that suggested Trump could not win and instead honed in on details like the fact the Democrats didn't get through another big package after Obamacare.

'A presidential election is, at its core, a referendum on whether the party in power should get four more years in office,' Lichtman noted.

By his measure, they did not.

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