Sunday, October 19, 2025

ANALYSIS OF YAHYA SINWAR'S HANDWRITTEN PLAN

Sinwar’s legacy of terror: A handwritten blueprint for worldwide jihad

An attack of this kind can occur in any country where a terrorist organization stands poised, and where internal social or ideological fractures exist. 

 

By Ronen Itsik 

 

JNS

Oct 17, 2025 

 

                        audeh2x730

                                                           Yahya Sinwar

 

As the war in Gaza is at its final stages, and the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump is being implemented, the Israel Defense Forces has released newly declassified notes written by Hamas senior leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks in southern Israel. The handwriting of Hamas’s leader in Gaza, who was killed by the IDF a year ago this month, laid out in chilling detail the meticulously planned, deadly massacre that changed the world forever.

An analysis of the documents shows clearly and unequivocally that the attack was planned in a horrifyingly meticulous manner, applying Eastern military doctrine for deep penetration into Israeli territory. Even more chilling is the evident intention to carry out mass killings of Israeli civilians and a distinct desire to unite all fronts, including the internal arena, meaning Arab citizens of Israel, against Israeli society.

 

The handwritten memo by senior Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who planned the terrorist attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and was assassinated by the Israel Defense Forces on Oct. 16, 2024. Credit: Courtesy of the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The handwritten memo by senior Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who planned the terrorist attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and was assassinated by the Israel Defense Forces on Oct. 16, 2024. 
 

Sinwar outlined doctrinal military methods to infiltrate Israel through multiple breakthrough efforts, defined waves of attack, and specified what constituted the forward and the second echelons, exactly as the Soviet army built its breakthrough doctrine, later copied identically by the Syrian army. Under Sinwar’s leadership, Hamas devised a military plan aimed at mass murder, spreading fear and terror, employing clear psychological warfare elements and broadcasting these atrocities in real time solely to amplify the shock Israeli society would endure.

His definition of commanders’ positions and assault unit missions highlights the depth of Israel’s intelligence failure. This was not a hastily decided operation; preparation and mission assignments prove it was long in the making and relied on Hamas’s intelligence regarding Israeli military operations and civilian routines.

It is chilling to read how Sinwar conceptualized direct harm to civilian populations as part of a battle for perception and the expansion of fighting, amplifying the echo of atrocities as a tool for establishing religious-ideological legitimacy for mass murder. The units he directed to carry out murderous raids against Israeli civilians recall the German Einsatzgruppen, which swept across Ukraine, Poland and Russia in search of Jews to annihilate during World War II. In this sense, Sinwar is also imitating a fundamentally Hitlerian worldview in every aspect.

Even more terrifying is that Sinwar’s plan was implemented in full. However, he miscalculated in two significant aspects: the resilience of Israeli society, especially the IDF reservists’ system; and the belief that he could mobilize Israeli Arabs to join the battle. His Iranian-proxy allies, notably Hezbollah, did not act with the intensity he anticipated. Still, Sinwar succeeded in perpetrating unprecedented mass killings and taking numerous hostages, dramatically impacting the campaign. For Hamas in Gaza, every planned operation was carried out.

One can hardly imagine the outcome of a combined attack from the West Bank and Lebanon with Hezbollah deploying the full strength it had available on Oct. 7, 2023; such a scenario would have posed an immediate existential threat to Israel. The IDF’s swift response and mobilization thwarted an overall plot whose sole objective was Israel’s annihilation, a matter of mere hours in either direction.

Sinwar’s operation is not a warning sign, but a genuine alarm for the entire Middle East and even the world. A jihadist attack of this kind can occur in any country where a terrorist organization stands poised, and where internal social or ideological fractures exist. ISIS toppled Syria and Iraq in this way; Jordan, Saudi Arabia or any other Arab state, including Shi’ite Iran, could fall similarly. In Europe, dormant cells of radical Islamists could paralyze entire nations. This is mass incitement to murder with weapons stockpiled quietly under the radar.

Sinwar’s actions inspire jihadist movements worldwide; some are likely already plotting the next stage, recognizing that a more synchronized operation could put Israel in immediate existential danger. This inspiration must be emphasized; it is an urgent threat to the delicate process that Trump seeks to advance. States unable to counter jihadist threats, including internal subversion, will collapse like a house of cards.

Israel’s foundation as a “citizen-soldier” military was the game-changer. Civilians transformed into soldiers within minutes, advanced to the front without orders, stabilized battlefronts, halted the threat and enabled decisive operations that dealt severe blows to the Iranian-Shi’ite axis, including Hamas. Few countries have this type of military model. Most, especially in the West, rely on smaller armies, and the majority of their citizens do not know how to use weapons to defend themselves or their communities.

The next stage of the Egypt- and Qatar-mediated agreement must lead swiftly to Gaza’s demilitarization, Hamas’s dismantlement and the deradicalization of Palestinian society. Without this, within a few short years, Hamas’s influence, inspiration and capabilities, especially mass mobilization, will pose existential dangers—and not only to Israel.

The lesson the world must instill in jihadist organizations is that actions like those conceived and led by Sinwar will result in total destruction: of the organization, its members, its capabilities and its removal from existence. The Nuremberg Trials of Nazis after World War II are a worthy precedent. At present, however, this does not seem to be the direction things are going, as instead of Hamas leaders becoming hunted by the international community, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant face arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court for war crimes. This is absurd.

The world must grasp the danger of jihad and the inspiration that jihadists continue to draw from Sinwar’s operations and subordinates. Without an intent to resolutely deal with these criminals, the next jihadist operation is only a matter of time.

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