THE MOST TROUBLING TREND IN WESTERN COUNTRIES IS THEIR EXTREMELY LOW BIRTH RATES

The end of ‘the West’

The key conclusion from Israel’s two-year-long war with Hamas in Gaza is not about the future of the Jewish state, but that of its former allies and what’s happening domestically in those countries. 

 

By Elad Israeli 

 

JNS

Oct 10, 2025

 

French police watch over Muslims praying. 

 

Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement on the first phase of the comprehensive plan introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump to release the remaining hostages in Hamas captivity, end the now two-year-old war and usher the region into a new era of peace. This first phase only commits both sides to the release of Gaza-held hostages and Israeli-held prisoners; a partial withdrawal of the Israeli Defense Forces inside Gaza; and a ceasefire that will continue as long as negotiations are held in good faith on the next steps.

Nevertheless, this has been deemed “the beginning of the end” for this war.

It’s hard to draw definitive conclusions on where the Middle East is headed from here. This is because the region’s DNA maintains its unpredictable character, but also because the war has shifted realities and calculations. These shifts will require time to simmer; it’s not yet clear what risks and opportunities will be present once the dust has settled. When it comes to the developed world, however, the trajectory is much more vivid—and it is a downhill one.

So many images have come out of this war: Certainly, on the ground in the Middle East—from the kibbutzim and Nova music festival site to Gaza, Beirut, Doha and Tehran. However, some of those etched most vividly are from areas that remained unharmed by this war: on college campuses in North America and in the streets of major cities in the United States, as well as in Europe, Canada, Australia and other countries that until recently were collectively labeled “Western.”

The political, social, and indeed, existential crisis that many of these places have been in for years now is on full display. Countries that make up the European Union, NATO and the OECD have been considered bastions of stability and prosperity since weapons were laid down at the end of the Second World War. This means that the modern-day State of Israel, for its entire existence, has looked to them not just as like-minded allies but as role models. Many of these nations are clearly no longer either of these.

The most troubling trend in these countries—one that provides indications for their present and their future—is their extremely low birth rates. Fertility across the West has been dwindling for decades and is sinking lower every year. As it currently stands, the average birth rate among OECD countries, excluding Israel, is 1.49 children per family. This means that with each generation, these countries’ native populations will shrink by one-fourth. In some countries, the situation is far more dire, with averages of 1.3 (Canada), 1.2 (Italy), 1.1 (Spain) and even 0.7 (South Korea).

Israel’s fertility rate, by contrast, currently stands at 2.9.

Some will try to explain these dips in economic hardships endured by young individuals, citing the rising costs of housing and childcare, in particular. However, as data has shown, Israelis themselves endure a much higher cost of living than most developed countries, with sky-high real estate costs. They also deal with constant uncertainty on matters of national security and politics, and even contribute several years of their lives to mandatory military service.

That said, they manage to maintain an extremely healthy fertility rate. Therefore, I would attribute the grim numbers in the West to a cultural rot, characterized by rising individualism and cosmopolitanism that have sought the outright replacement of national solidarity, family life and everything else that provided Western societies with the tools to thrive for the majority of the 20th century.

Countries cannot exist without people; economies depend on workers to maintain themselves and avoid collapse. Governments understand this; those suffering from a birth crisis have turned to welcoming migrants into their borders. What they’ve failed to understand is that countries cannot be merely a collection of individuals who live in proximity to each other and pay taxes to the same government. They also require an ethos, produced by a collective memory of a shared history that cannot be imported. When native populations are cut by a quarter—in some cases by half—with each generation and are replaced by a massive influx of people who do not carry with them this collective memory, the ethos fades away. A nation, a people, is turned simply into a population, and societal collapse is sure to follow.

That’s the thing about low fertility rates; both their cause and their effect signal troubled societies. The societal collapse in most of the Western world is already showing on the streets. Major protests in support of Islamic terrorism against not just Israel but these countries’ own governments are emblematic of this. The massive and violent protests in Europe, Canada, Australia and the United States signal trouble for these countries first and foremost, less so for Israel.

While some politicians have tried pacifying these protesters (through, most recently, unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state), this has not helped since the root of this unrest is much deeper. In the United Kingdom, the murder of Jewish attendees at a Yom Kippur service in Manchester, England, took place after statehood was declared by Prime Minister Keir Starmer; in France, the government has collapsed for the fourth time in President Emmanuel Macron’s second term. A new parliamentary election could see his political camp fall apart, with calls for his resignation growing ever louder. His move to recognize “Palestine” did nothing to prevent or alleviate this.

 

  

A child is seen near members of the Muslim community attending midday prayers at Strasbourg Grand Mosque in Strasbourg, France, on the first day of Ramadan.

 

For many of these countries, it’s too late to change course. Too much damage has been done; the current trajectory cannot be reversed. For some, recent events sound a dire warning; they have not yet fallen off the cliff, but are dangerously close to it. Major changes in policy are required. First and foremost, pro-natal ones are necessary to encourage those living in these countries to build new generations of natural-born citizens. Another requirement is for immigration policies to be centered on social and political assimilation, even if this draws cries from advocates of political correctness.

As for our ally Israel, what should it do? The first conclusion, which I’ve highlighted in previous pieces, is to adopt a policy of maximalist self-sufficiency. Jerusalem must realize that many of its traditional partners are no longer the reliable allies they once were. Those who still are, such as the United States, may unfortunately also change for the worse in the coming years, and Israel must be prepared for this.

With time, global trends will give rise to new powers, and with that to new alliances and partnerships. We’re already seeing this, for example, in Israel’s growing relationship with India. The end of the fossil-fuel age will also change global dynamics in Israel’s favor. While I have no doubt that opportunities will be abundant, a change of course and preparation for a tough interim period, spanning several decades, is a must.