RAY KELLY’S CYNICAL STAT WAR

Under Kelly, strong pressures emanated from the NYPD leadership to manipulate crime reports in order to cast crime statistics in the most favorable light

By John Eterno and Eli Silverman

New York Daily News
January 3, 2016

Former Police Commissioner Ray Kelly’s questioning of the accuracy of the NYPD’s numbers under current Commissioner William Bratton is quite puzzling.

The evidence of crime reporting manipulation under Kelly was extensive and known to everyone, except apparently the former commissioner.

Our book “The Crime Numbers Game” and several peer-reviewed articles document it. Two surveys we conducted over those years with separate samples of retired officers demonstrated strong pressures emanating from the department’s leadership to manipulate crime reports in order to cast crime statistics in the most favorable light.

This evidence is buttressed with evidence from multiple whistleblowers. One whistleblower’s allegations were even supported by a long-suppressed memorandum from the NYPD’s Quality Assurance Division. Both the Patrolmen’s Benevolent Association and the Sergeant’s Benevolent Association have publicly reported these pressures on their memberships.

The Ray Kelly now aiming claims of stat-distortion at his successor is remarkably the same Ray Kelly who summarily dismissed our questioning his crime statistics and our calls for independent analysis.

When asked to answer our extensive evidence at the time, a department spokesperson referred to “two significant, independent and more comprehensive studies” which found its crime reports to be “reliable and sound.” Yet one of those, an unpublished 2006 NYU study, was by its own admission limited in scope and rested on its “conversations with senior command staff and a review of written material.”

Significantly, during his tenure, Kelly also rebuffed an attempt by the city’s Commission to Combat Police Corruption to rigorously examine crime statistics. When more and more evidence of crime-report manipulation accumulated, he appointed a committee comprised of three former prosecutors which, despite being handpicked by the commissioner and dependent on NYPD staff, also reported significant shortcomings in the crime reports.

To his credit, Bratton has decried the previous NYPD administration’s pressures and preoccupation with quantity over quality. Obsession with judging everyone and everything solely based on quantitative data lends itself to manipulations and quotas, real or perceived, that distort policing.

Bratton has made significant strides in this area since taking the reins last year. Two commanders have been brought under the microscope for their fudging activities. That may be a sign that the new boss is taking the problem seriously — or it may point to a wider problem.

Additionally, recent revelations have noted that the NYPD, in conversations with the manufacturer, sought to lower the cost of frequently stolen Citi Bikes to under $1,000, thus reducing felonies — another numbers game. While not illegal, this is certainly similar to earlier efforts at creative crime accounting.

The NYPD’s statistics manifest themselves most prominently in the department’s performance management system, Compstat — which has many positive aspects and deserves most of the acclaim it has garnered. It is far better to try to measure crime accurately and adjust police resources accordingly than to base decisions on anecdote or intuition.

Yet again and again around the country, we have seen how the Compstat management system can be misused and thus produce distortions and dishonesty — in Baltimore, Chicago, Milwaukee, New Orleans and Los Angeles (including while Bratton was the commissioner there).

The NYPD is an amazing law enforcement agency with exceptional personnel, one that has saved thousands of lives over the last 20 years. But it functions best when the rank and file are empowered to do their job without needless overwhelming pressures of producing the “right” numbers.

Which is why it is deeply disappointing that Bratton and Kelly, for all their disagreements, are in lockstep on one point: They resist the need for an independent agency to review the department’s crime statistics and reporting system. Bratton cites the fact that the department already has an inspector general — and must also report to a federal monitor as a result of the landmark stop-and-frisk court case.

But neither of these bodies has a mandate to systematically and continuously review and analyze the city’s crime statistics and reporting system.

Crime data needs to be correct and complete, as certified by an independent auditor. Such an audit should be ongoing and not just cover the tenure of any one commissioner.

Numbers increasingly fuel policing strategies. We must guarantee that the fuel is free of damaging contaminants.

Eterno, professor, associate dean and director of graduate studies at Molloy College, is a retired NYPD captain. Silverman is professor emeritus at John Jay College of Criminal Justice.