By Bob Walsh
We are now within one month until the election. Poll
numbers may start to be meaningful now and the direction the polls are
moving in is probably meaningful.
RealClearPolitics
poll averages show Trump very slightly ahead in Michigan. Hillary lost
Michigan in 2016 but Biden snagged it in 2020. Quinipiac shows Trump
being ahead for the first time in both Michigan and Wisconsin. ALL of
the battleground states show things being very, very tight. Of course
the popular vote and the electoral college vote are not the same thing.
That is probably why both Tampon Tim and Cackling Kamala are now
babbling very loudly that it is clearly mandatory that our country
switch to popular vote elections, which means that CA and NY will decide
all national races. That appeals very strongly to the
Democrat-Socialist party and not so much to anybody that doesn't have
their head up their ass.
A
New York Times / Siena poll shows the senate leaning strongly towards a
Republican takeover, by the most slim margin possible, 51-49.
Trump
is holding a huge (hopefully) rally at Madison Square Garden. He
claims that maybe New York is in play. I think that is wishful
thinking, but a nice huge rally with nice huge numbers sure looks good,
especially if it is in enemy territory.
Polling
is far from an exact science. Remember the Scottish Referendum ten
years ago? People lie to pollsters. People engage in wishful thinking
but when it comes time to pull the lever they maybe go in a different
direction.
Right at the
moment my guesstimate (for what that might be worth to you) is that the
election will be won or lost in Pennsylvania. If Kamala loses there, it
is probably over. There is almost no path to victory for her in that
case. If Trump loses Pennsylvania he could still win if he sweeps
everything else, which is not impossible (but maybe not real likely
either).
It seems likely that November 5 late night television news will be a nail-biter.
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