IDF sees chance for strikes on Iran nuke sites after knocking out Syria air defenses
Over 85% of Assad regime’s anti-aircraft systems destroyed in strikes, giving Israeli jets, drones total air superiority; IDF assesses weapons from Syria could reach Hezbollah
The Israel Defense Forces believes that following the weakening of Iranian proxy groups in the Middle East and the dramatic fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, there is an opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, military officials said Thursday.
The Israeli Air Force has therefore continued to increase its readiness and preparations for such potential strikes in Iran.
The IDF also believes that Iran — isolated after the fall of the Assad regime and the weakening of its main proxy group Hezbollah in Lebanon — may push ahead further with its nuclear program and develop a bomb as it scrambles to replace its deterrence.
Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and says both its space program and nuclear activities are for purely civilian purposes.
However, US intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program up until 2003, and continued to develop its nuclear program beyond civilian necessity. Israel contends that the Islamic Republic never truly abandoned its nuclear weapons program and many of its nuclear sites are buried under heavily fortified mountains.
Iran is committed to Israel’s destruction. Over the past year, it has twice fired massive barrages of missiles at Israel, which has vowed to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel has struck key Iranian military facilities in retaliation for both attacks, which came in the context of a multifront war opened by Iranian terror proxies on the Jewish state.
Complete air superiority in Syria
On Thursday, the IAF said that after over a decade of evading air defenses over the skies of Syria during a campaign against Iran’s supply of weapons to Hezbollah, it had achieved total air superiority in the area.
This air superiority over Syria could enable safer passage for IAF aircraft to carry out a strike on Iran, the military officials said.
An Israeli bombing campaign earlier this week across Syria, aimed at taking out advanced weaponry that could fall into the hands of hostile elements following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime, also destroyed the vast majority of the air defenses in the country.
According to the military, the IAF destroyed 86% of the former Assad regime’s air defense systems across Syria, totaling 107 separate air defense components and another 47 radars.
The numbers include 80% of the short-to medium-range SA-22, also known as the Pantsir-S1; and 90% of the Russian SA-17 medium-range air defense system, also known as the Buk.
Both Russian-made systems had posed challenges to the IAF during its so-called campaign between campaigns — or Mabam, as it’s known by its Hebrew acronym — aimed at countering Iranian weapon deliveries to Hezbollah in Lebanon and attempts by Iran-backed groups to gain a foothold in the country, which began in 2013.
Only a handful of air defense systems now remain in Syria, and they are not considered a major threat to the IAF, which said it can operate freely across the country’s skies.
“The Syrian air defense array is one of the strongest in the Middle East and the blow caused to it is a significant achievement for the Air Force’s superiority in the region,” the IDF said in a statement.
The new freedom of aerial action also brings the IAF new opportunities in Syria, in addition to potential strikes in Iran.
If in the past, the IAF would not fly directly over Damascus when carrying out strikes on Iran-linked targets in the capital, it now can. The IAF can also send surveillance drones over the Syrian capital without the fear of them being shot down by the advanced Russian-made air defense systems.
Hezbollah scramble to get Assad’s weapons
While the Iran-backed Assad regime has fallen, Israel has said it would still operate over Syria to ensure that advanced weapons from the former government’s army do not reach Hezbollah in Lebanon or any other group hostile to Israel in the region.
The bombing campaign on Sunday and Monday, which began hours after Assad’s regime fell, also hit Syrian airbases, weapon depots, weapon production sites, and chemical weapons sites, in addition to the air defense systems. The strikes destroyed hundreds of missiles and related systems, 27 fighter jets — including SU-22s and SU-24s — 24 helicopters, and more. Israeli Navy strikes also destroyed 15 Syrian naval vessels.
A total of 1,800 munitions were used by the IAF in the strikes, taking out nearly every site of “strategic military capabilities” that Israel was aware of.
The IDF assessed that it did not destroy all of the Assad regime’s military capabilities, and Hezbollah will most certainly try to get its hands on any advanced weapons that were so far spared.
The chances of weapons from Syria finding their way to Hezbollah in Lebanon are considered to be high, according to the IDF’s assessments.
To prevent weapons from reaching Hezbollah, the IAF has bombed all of the border crossings between Syria and Lebanon, leaving just one of them, Masnaa, open for pedestrian traffic. The IAF said that it is constantly monitoring the crossings to ensure that Hezbollah does not return to use them for weapon deliveries.
At the same time, the military also believes it has dealt a major blow to the weapon manufacturing capabilities of the entire Iran-led axis, in Lebanon, Syria, and in Iran itself with October’s strike in response to Tehran’s ballistic missile attack.
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