IT IS STILL EARLY INNINGS, BUT THESE ARE THE CURRENT NUMBERS

By Bob Walsh

This is the standing in the battle grounds states right now.  These are polling averages maintained by THE HILL

Arizona.  Trump is ahead of Harris by 7.2.  This is a slight lead for Trump over what he was ahead of Biden by.  Only 5.7% of the Arizona electorate are Black.  Biden carried Arizona by about 0.4% last time around.

Georgia.  Trump is up on Harris by 4.6.  He was up on Biden by 3.7.  Georgia has the largest Black population by percentage of any battleground state.  About 1/3 of the electorate there is Black.

Michigan.  Trump is up 2.2 over Harris.  He was also up 2.2 over Biden.  There have however been no major polls in Michigan since Biden jumped ship.  The general feeling seems to be that Harris will do much better than Biden would have with the large anti-Semitic voting block in and around Dearborn.

Nevada.  Trump is up 8 points over Harris, but there has also been no large scale polling there since Biden cut and ran.  Harris is thought to be able to do better with undecided Latinos than either Trump or Biden would have.

Pennsylvania.  This is the largest of the so-called swing states.  It holds 19 electoral college votes.  Trump is showing the same edge over Harris as he did over Biden, about 4 points.

Wisconsin.  Biden won Wisconsin by 0.6% four years ago.  Right now Wisconsin seems to be too close to call.  The college kids and Black voters will almost certainly favor Harris, but the largely undecided vote there, which is substantial right now, seem to be leaning conservative and will tend to favor Trump.  Getting out the vote will be hugely important here.

Personally I am not sure Harris can win, but I am confident that the Republicans can lose.  They are good at it.