Elections amplifying US opposition to Israeli strike on Iran
Observers express deep concern over leak of classified documents on reported IAF preparations.
The Israeli Air Force practicing aerial refueling of fighter jets in Israeli airspace. The exercise simulated long-range flight deep behind enemy lines, Aug. 18, 2024.
Diplomatic tensions between the Biden administration and Jerusalem over the ongoing war, as well as leaked classified documents regarding reported IAF preparations for a strike on Iran, have placed Washington’s stance on Israel’s military actions in the spotlight once again.
The upcoming elections in the United States are amplifying a tendency in Washington to attempt to rein in Israeli military actions, particularly against Iran, Professor Eytan Gilboa, an expert on US-Israeli relations at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan and a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told JNS on Sunday.
The current US response to Israel’s military actions is heavily influenced by the presidential election campaign, as Democrats and Republicans are locked in a statistical tie in the swing states, and “everything they [the administration] does now, including [President Joe] Biden’s actions, which are meant to assist [Vice President Kamala] Harris, is related to the election,” Gilboa said.
In addition, “The US is most motivated by a concern about a regional war, and they view that [possibility] as a complete failure on their part,” he said, highlighting that preventing a wider conflict remains Washington’s top priority.
This underlying fear, according to Gilboa, which preceded the elections season, is also driving US efforts to restrain Israel from actions that could lead to direct confrontations with Iran. “They see all of the targeting killings, particularly of Hezbollah’s [Hassan] Nasrallah, as something that could ignite a regional war.”
As such, Gilboa said, “The elections, in my opinion, are simply intensifying a stance that has been there almost from the beginning of the war.”
Meanwhile, revelations have surfaced in recent days stemming from leaked documents, detailing Israeli preparations for an attack on Iran. The documents, apparently from the US Department of Defense, were published by a pro-Iran outlet.
The fact that classified documents from the Pentagon containing such sensitive material reached a pro-Iran site “is simply unbelievable,” Gilboa said, highlighting the gravity of the situation. He further pointed out that this isn’t the first time that sensitive information such as this has been leaked, but this time, “it creates a real dilemma for Israel.”
On the one hand, the US continues to provide Israel with crucial defense support, yet on the other, “they [the US] want details of what we are going to do, and they tell us through the media what they don’t want us to do, like targeting oil and nuclear facilities,” the professor said.
Restoring bipartisan support is vital for Israel’s long-term strategic relationship with the US, but this is becoming increasingly difficult due to the current political dynamics in both countries, Gilboa argued.
US national security crisis
Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stressed the broader implications of such leaks for US security. “The leak itself and the potential for more leaks yet to come is a national security crisis for the United States,” Goldberg told JNS on Monday.
“We don’t yet have confirmation of who leaked this and why, but the event needs to force a systemic review of who has access to intelligence and how we protect against political and ideological radicalization among those with access to top secret information,” he said.
Goldberg further cautioned that “pro-Hamas and pro-Iran propaganda, amplified by President Biden, Vice President Harris and certain white nationalist influencers, can have consequences in radicalizing elements of our society against Israel and Jews.”
The leaked documents reportedly revealed Israel’s preparations for a strike on Iran, with specific details on Israeli Air Force exercises and drone deployments. On Oct. 19, Ynet reported that the documents—marked “Top Secret”—included reported long-range strike rehearsals by the IAF.
Diplomatic tension between the US and Israel regarding Iran was further underscored by Biden’s comments on Oct. 18, when he said the administration knows how and when Israel will respond to the Oct. 1 Iranian mass ballistic missile attack, adding that the US has been working to manage the situation in a way that ends the conflict.
These remarks were interpreted by several experts, including Gilboa, as a signal that the US is attempting to pressure Israel into minimizing or refraining from military action against Iran, favoring diplomatic solutions instead.
However, Israel remains focused on neutralizing Iranian threats, and Israel’s defense establishment appears to be focused on planning the timing and scope of its response, in line with directives from the Cabinet, following Iran’s attack on Oct. 1.
1 comment:
I suspect the author is calling it correctly.
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