TRUMP'S SLIDE IN THE POLLS IS MISLEADING

Facing re-election, the American president is now at the most critical juncture in his political life

 

By Erez Linn

 

Israel Hayom

July 30, 2020

 

It is safe to assume that the first thing President Donald Trump says to his advisers every morning is, "How am I doing in Florida?".

For the past several decades, the Sunshine State has served as the microcosm of the US, a refined version of all the battles and fragmentations across the nation: Left vs. Right, ethnic minorities vs. whites, old vs. young, urban vs. rural.

As such, it has become the Holy Grail of American politics, the ultimate tossup state that can decide an election (as it famously did in 2000). In recent days former Vice President Joe Biden, who will become the official Democratic presidential nominee in late August, has been opening up a sizable lead in Florida against the 45th president.

A recent CNN poll has had him with a 5 percentage point advantage over Trump; a Quinnipiac University poll has put him 13 points ahead of the incumbent president. Biden has also been leading or tying with the president in other key battleground states, including states that gave Trump their electoral votes in 2016.

The polls can't tell us anything about what is going to unfold on Election Day, but they do tell us that there is a key segment in the electorate that has no enthusiasm either for Trump or for Biden.

You can call those in this segment "Disaffected Trump voters" or "Curious would-be Biden voters." It's hard to tell how big this group will be on November 3. Judging from past elections, it would be wrong to read too much into their current preferences: Practically every election campaign sees the non-incumbent party shoot up in the polls during the summer months because of undecided voters who temporarily park their support with the new face.

In 1988, then-Governor of Massachusetts Michael Dukakis led by several dozen points in the polls after winning the Democratic nomination in the summer but then lost to then-Vice President George Bush in the fall. In the summer of 1992, a third-party candidate that emerged from nowhere, businessman Ross Perot, was ahead in the polls against both the president (Bush) and his Democratic challenger, then-Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton. But several months later, on Election Day, Perot failed to win a single electoral vote.

Looking at the polls, Trump knows that voters are sending him a message. They want him to earn his second term through hard work. What's particularly concerning for the president is that this sentiment is prevalent among the very coalition that handed him victory four years ago: the suburban middle class, the independent anti-establishment voters, and the blue-collar whites.

The latest AP poll showed that 80% of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. This is the highest this figure has been since Trump has taken office. In some respects, you can say that Trump is now at the most critical juncture in his political life. For the first time since entering politics, voters are no longer captivated by who he his, and are flirting with a Biden presidency.

To change this dynamic, Trump has recently adopted a more statesmen-like posture and reinstated the daily coronavirus press conferences. He has even begun to wear a face mask to lead by example. Meanwhile, he has also tried to tap the full potential of the Republican base by casting himself as "America's Sheriff" who can crack down on violent protesters.

But he knows, judging from sentiment emerging from the AP poll, that he must also offer hope in his campaign, just like he brilliantly did in 2016. The American people have one big hope right now: to get back to pre-pandemic normalcy. This is why it is incumbent upon Trump to reinvent himself now, before it is too late.