Most of the Israeli settlements along the border have seen
significant destruction, while—according to Lebanese statistics—almost
10,000 houses have been destroyed by Israel. Wildfires have burned on
both sides. Thousands of acres of forestry and natural reserves have
been destroyed and so far there is no projection as to when the dwellers
of these areas will be able to return to their homes.
The armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has caused human
losses on both sides: Israel has lost 32 soldiers and civilians, while
Hezbollah’s losses are beyond 400 of its combatants.
In the ensuing battles, each party used new weaponry that practically
had no counter-weapon. Hezbollah has used intensely its heavy rockets
(Falaq, Burkan and its new Jihad Mughniyeh rocket); its sophisticated
anti-tank missiles (Russian Kornet and Spike reverse engineered Israeli
anti-tank missiles); and Iranian-supplied kamikaze and surveillance
drones—a threat that Israel has experienced difficulties in intercepting
and overcoming.
Hezbollah bragged about its capabilities of overflying Israel with spy drones (the Hudhud,
Arabic for the hoopoe) that took pictures of sensitive facilities and
hit strategic targets, such as the vast surveillance balloon located
east of Tiberias far beyond the five-kilometer zone evacuated by Israel.
Israel, for its part, has been using its air force in targeting
Hezbollah’s military chiefs, air-defense positions, airstrips and drone
installations. The Israeli Air Force chief declared that Israel was
using barely five percent of its airpower against Hezbollah.
As Israel enters the 10th month of the war with Hamas, the question
that looms is: How will the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah
develop?
Naim Qassem, deputy secretary-general of the
Lebanese Hezbollah, declared on July 3, 2024, that the only sure way to
stop the war on the Lebanese-Israeli border is a complete ceasefire in
Gaza. Qassem said in an interview with the Associated Press that
if there were a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah would stop bombing Israel
without any discussion. He added that Hezbollah’s participation in the
war between Israel and Hamas was a “support front” for its Hamas ally
and that if the war stopped, this military support would no longer be
needed.
However, Qassem said that if Israel scaled back its military
operations without reaching a formal ceasefire agreement and a complete
withdrawal from Gaza, the implications for the border conflict between
Lebanon and Israel would be less clear.
Qassem stated, “If what is happening in Gaza becomes a mixture of a
ceasefire and no ceasefire, of war and no war, we cannot know how
Hezbollah will react, because we do not know the form of this situation,
its results or its effects.”1
Qassem reflected on Nasrallah’s analysis of the situation between
Hezbollah and Israel. In a speech on July 11, Hezbollah
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah stressed that “the southern Lebanon
front is bearing fruit due to the military, economic, security and
social losses it is inflicting on the Israeli enemy.”
He pointed out that “everyone in the world now knows that stopping
operations in the north of the entity [Israel] requires stopping the
aggression on Gaza,” and he stressed that “whatever Hamas is satisfied
with, we are all satisfied with regarding the negotiations on the impact
of the Zionist aggression on the Gaza Strip.”
Nasrallah declared, “The enemy cannot end the operations in Rafah and
achieve any gains. Can it invade north of the border to the Litani
River?”
He continued: “For 10 months, we have been carrying out operations
and striking sites, settlements, the depth, the Golan Heights, the
north, and the entire region is threatened. Do we hear the enemy speak
of eliminating Hezbollah?”
He stressed, “We must remain cautious and prepared for the worst
possibilities,” adding that “if Netanyahu insists on this war, he will
take his entity to its end.”
Who wants what?
Analyzing the positions of the U.S. administration, Iran, Hezbollah
and Israel, none of the parties is interested in a regional war. Israeli
officials said again and again that their preference is to reach a
diplomatic solution to the standoff and hope to avoid war. At the same
time, they warned that the scenes of destruction witnessed in Gaza would
be repeated in Lebanon if war broke out.
However, the main question remains unanswered. It is unclear what
Hezbollah’s position will be if a ceasefire is not reached in Gaza.
Instead of an ongoing battle, a low-intensity conflict replaces the
tactics of the Israel Defense Forces, meaning that the war with Hamas
will not end until Hamas is dismantled.
Another question deals with the possibility of reaching a ceasefire
with Hamas, which would stop Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel. Bearing in
mind that the Israeli evacuees have declared that they would not return
to their homes if Hezbollah does not withdraw from southern Lebanon to
beyond the Litani River, would Israel and Hamas agree to negotiate a
diplomatic arrangement that might take months to mature, if at all, or
would the all-out war would be the remaining option?
Nasrallah’s deputy said in the same interview that he did not believe
Israel had the capacity or had decided to wage war at present. He
warned that even if Israel intended to launch a limited operation in
Lebanon, which would fall short of a full-scale war, no one should
expect the fighting to remain limited.
Originally published by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
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