Without going into your charges against the Democrats, Trump is in very deep trouble.
1) The economy is bad and will likely get far worse by the election. The 2.2 Trillion of stimulus has been propping the economy up. Its all been spent. There will be problems extending much of it due to Trumps dumb decision to block transparency into it and GOP opposition to trickle up measures. Any stimulus extension helps the GOP so the Dems have all the negotiating leverage. Yet McConnell and Trump are acting like they hold the cards. When this all runs out, all hell will break loose.
2) Trumps messaging is awful. Its all geared towards people already in his camp, which represent about 35% of the electorate. And targeted at 52% of the electorate (LGBT, African Americans, Hispanics, college degreed individuals, non-evangelicals, many women). His outreach to those groups is of the circus variety (Kanye West) and isnt designed to actually convince significant persons in those groups to support him, but rather to message to his base that “see, Trump isnt racist”. Its not working.
3) Trumps Covid response was a disaster. And remains one. And large numbers of Republicans are blaming him for it. He blew off the response in January and February, then tried to use shutdowns in March to attack Democratic Governors in MI, WI, and PA by betting that people would be more afraid of being seen as “Beta male” than of Covid. People were even willing to forgive him when he tried to respond to Covid for a hot minute. Thats gone now. Along with Trumps large lead with older voters. And Trump and the GOP keep digging.
4) Trump doubled down on the anti BLM rhetoric too, which was a political (as well as a moral) gaffe. He then compounded it by tear gassing and flash banging Episcopal priests on their own property and celebrated the beating up of protesters by police. This is proving to be very bad for his standing with older and Country Club voters (he had those voters in 2016) His behavior outraged those opposed to him too, which has meant that the Bernie/Green opposition wont exist in the fall for exploitation by Trump like in 2016. Biden even told BLM that he had no intention of ‘defunding the police’ and no one on the left said anything in response to that rebuke.
5) Trump is banking on debates to bail him out. Biden is old and sounds like it too. But all Biden has to do is hold a few comebacks like “I wont tell people to drink Bleach”, “Trump got money from Saudi Arabia as hush money over the murder of a US resident”, “Trump and his billionaire cronies got Trillions and left yall to go bankrupt” in reserve if he feels he is losing the debate. Trump may be perceived to ‘win’ a debate but I doubt it will be decisive.
6) Trump is counting on a major gaffe by Biden or a manufactured one. But people arent listening anymore. And Trump cant be bothered to stay on message long enough to profit for any sustainable period of time from one.
7) Trump doesnt have 4 months to turn this around…he has 2 or less. If he cannot start to claw back to a 5 percent deficit by September, people will start abandoning him in droves. First, the appeal of him being a winner that makes the Americans his supporters dislike angry fails if people feel that he will lose, especially if that they feel he will be embarrassed in the election. If people within his administration feel that that they may have liability (especially criminal) they will start to try to make deals, exposing scandals by the truckload. The crisis in Texas, Arizona, and Florida with Covid will last at least that long. And theres no one to blame there but Republicans.
Trump is down now by 10 to 15 points. If it gets worse, theres a huge problem. If he cant eat half of it away by September, its very dire for him.
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Bidens election is not guaranteed. The new defectors are Republican adjacent and there may be some of a ‘coming home’ effect as Trump tries to paint the Dems as pinko commies. There may be a Caravan, a manufactured crisis, or some other event that might help Trump. But time is rapidly running out for him.
Right now a Trump win and a Biden 400 Electoral college vote/20% blowout are probably equally likely.
_____
In this race, Biden is consistently polling at or above 50% and is doing so in enough states to win the EC. Someone who is open to voting for Trump isn't going to tell a pollster "I'm voting for Biden" but will likely say "I'm undecided". The surprise scenario becomes far more plausible if Biden were leading Trump 40 to 30, rather than 50 to 40. Also, look at the strong disapproval number for Trump, also around 50 percent. People who are voting for Biden aren't likely going to say they hate Trump strongly. And have done so consistently.
A
Trump surprise has the following elements. 1) A massive polling error
far in excess of 2016 2) Trump within 5 points and Biden below 47
percent 3) Trump with a lead with double haters (people who say they
dislike Biden and Trump - Biden has the support of two thirds of them)
4) momentum going into election day 5) String disapproval of Trump below
45 percent and 6) and leakage from Biden on his left. Right now none
of those scenarios are showing up in the polls.
Trump
has bet on older white voters being scared of something and hyper
masculine signaling to white voters to carry him through. His
disastrous Covid response is hurting that. Sure, he will win both
groups, but he needs massive margins because his messaging guarantees
massive margins for Biden from anyone else.
Polls
can be skewed, but they've been tested in elections during his
Presidency and have not shown too much under-polling of GOP strength.
10 comments:
Tom's blog is Bullshit. I watched President Trump speak last night at Mount Rushmore. Not just bits and pieces, but the entire speech. It was moving and the crowd was very enthusiastic. He didn't pull any punches about the anarchists and has assigned the feds to arrest those who participate in the destruction of statues. Many have already been arrested. The country is in organized turmoil but the silent majority will prevail. The Doom & Gloom Bloggers are simply giving their opinion and in the long run many have turned out to be wrong.
These Doom & Gloom Bloggers need to shut up. They are contributing to the organized anarchy.
I love the 4th of July! I was fortunate to see Martina McBride sing "Independence Day" in concert. Unlike Doom & Gloom, It's very uplifting!
enjoy.
https://youtu.be/sslFmCepE_0
Trey, Trump was speaking to his hard core supporters. You, like them, would say if Trump shot a pregnant nun at high noon on Main Street that she committed suicide.
Howie, Not today. It's Independence Day! You and Tom the Bullshit writer can Gloom and Doom all ya'll want. This evening we're celebrating with family and friends at acreage outside the city. Shooting fireworks and firearms while being free. I love the USA!
Trey, it's obvious that you did not like what Tom said, but it's not bullshit. He put forth a compelling case, You're the one putting out bullshit.
A Happy 4th to you and your loved ones.
Just arrived home after the 4th of July Celebration and found your obligatory last word. Why don't you and Old Tom hold hands and take a long walk down a short Compelling Bullshit pier. You have publicly changed your mind about if and who you are voting for at least three times in the past year. Neither one of you know can predict what ya'll are having for lunch, much less predict an election. President Trump wasn't expected to win the last election and now Good Old Tom is playing the same song. The problem is anybody can sing it. It's easy to throw President Trump under the bus just to pen a blog. Compelling case? Who do you think you are? Clarence Darrow? By the way, Who are you voting for today?
Like I said, you're the one full of bullshit, Trey. You've got your head stuck so far up Trump's ass, that you can't see the light.
Just arrived home after the 4th of July Celebration and found your obligatory last word. Why don't you and Old Tom hold hands and take a long walk down a short Compelling Bullshit pier. You have publicly changed your mind about if and who you are voting for at least three times in the past year. Neither one of you know can predict what ya'll are having for lunch, much less predict an election. President Trump wasn't expected to win the last election and now Good Old Tom is playing the same song. The problem is anybody can sing it. It's easy to throw President Trump under the bus just to pen a blog. Compelling case? Who do you think you are? Clarence Darrow? By the way, Who are you voting for today?
I wrote it slower this time so you and Tom could comprehend it.
Me thinks you had too much beer to drink celebrating the 4th. First of all, neither Tom nor I predicted Trump will lose. We merely pointed out why right now he is in dire straits and what will have to happen for him to win. And where do you get that "You have publicly changed your mind about if and who you are voting for at least three times in the past year." I only changed my mind once and that was just within the past week when I decided to vote for Trump. Prior to that I said I would not cast my ballot for president.
If you ever get your head extracted out of Trump's ass, make sure you don't leave your prized MAGA cap behind.
Gloom & Doomers will be Gloom & Doomers. Do yourself a favor and disregard these self proclaimed prophecy foreseers. They know no more than anyone else.
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