By Bob Walsh
The View. 60 Minutes.
Colbert. Cackling Kamala just hit all of them. The View and Colbert
threw her a lot of softballs. She mostly whiffed. 60 Minutes was
respectful but asked her some real questions. She came up with word
salad. Some of which 60 Minutes clipped from their YouTube version of
the show. Even the Teamsters Union president just blasted Democrats in
general, though not Kamala by name. I am not sure it will matter.
We
have become largely tribal. Roughly 40 to 45% of the people will vote
for ANY Democrat. It doesn't matter who they are. It doesn't matter
what sort of condition they are in. Roughly 40 to 45% will vote for ANY
Republican. Not so much for Trump maybe, he has a strong NEVER TRUMP
opposition, but the general feeling is still out there.
That
may to some extent be changing. Black and Hispanic voters seem to be
swinging at least somewhat towards Republicans. Some may be engaging in
critical thinking. Some may be asking, "What have you done for me
lately?" It is odd, at least to me, but Kamala seems to be polling LESS
in some of those critical demographics than Senile Joe did four years
back. There are still the single-issue / abortion voters who will back
Kamala, most of who are young women. There are still the people who
want to be able to say they voted for the first woman President. Those
will mostly be young women and the soy milk latte man-bun crowd. There
aren't that many of them, but they are out there.
This
election could come down to a few tens of thousands of voters in five
or six states. It could, at least in theory, come down to one vote in
Omaha.
My personal
guesstimate right now, based on very little hard evidence and a lot of
vibes, much of which may be wishful thinking, is as follows.
I
think (maybe hope) that Trump will do it. I think he will carry
Georgia and North Carolina. I HOPE he will carry Pennsylvania. IF he
manages those three it is almost for-sure in the bag. I think Arizona
and Nevada are very likely going to break for Trump. Michigan and
Wisconsin are still squishy IMHO.
Kamala
is running what might be the worst campaign since Hillary Clinton. She
seems to believe her own press releases. She thought she could do the
hide in the basement and say nothing thing that Joe carried off four
years ago, courtesy of the plague. It looks like she will not be able
to pull that off. She has said she is the change agent. She has also
said that she can not think of anything that Joe did that she would
change. That doesn't compute. I don't know if the Biden and Obama
leftovers in her campaign are deliberately messing with her or what.
She seems to have believed that her coronation as the Democrat-Socialist
standard bearer would carry her thru. Four weeks ago it was
happening. This week its not.
She
wants to spend a shit-ton of money but seems to be unable to comprehend
that she needs the help of congress to do that. Its like she thinks
she can wave her magic Black-Indian-Woman wand and it will just
magically happen. She seems surprised that it maybe isn't.
Hope
clouds reason. Maybe I am whistling past the graveyard. I don't think
I am. We will find out for sure in less than four weeks.
1 comment:
A Quinipiac poll just released earlier today shows Trump +2 in Wisconsin. A Harris internal poll shows Trump +3 in Wisconsin.
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