THE FUTURE DEMOCRATIC PARTY DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR ISRAEL

Israel must free itself from dependency on Washington

Complying with U.S. interests often impacts Israel's deterrence. 

 

By Joseph Puder

 

JNS

Sep 19, 2024

 

 

A ball of fire and smoke rises from a 2,000 pound bomb blast during an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip, Oct. 9, 2023

 

The Israel Defense Forces have been in an intense state of alert in recent weeks. Israel is anticipating a retaliatory attack from Iran, and/or its proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon, allegedly in response to last month’s elimination of Hamas senior leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. For Israel and Israelis, this is an unacceptable situation. The 24/7 alert has taken a particular toll on the Air Force reservist pilots and ground crews, who must be away from their families and jobs. The overall Israeli economy, including the agricultural sector, has also suffered enormously. And, most critically, the war and the anxiety over the hostages continue to seriously impact the national morale and the psychological well-being of many in Israel.

As exhibited in previous situations, Israel would have launched a preventive strike against Iran and Hezbollah; however, in consideration of the Biden administration’s demand that it avoid doing so for fear that an Israeli strike might trigger a wider regional war, the Jewish state has refrained. The primary reason for Washington’s efforts to restrain Israel from acting is, first and foremost, the upcoming U.S. elections. The administration doesn’t want American personnel in the Middle East coming back in body bags. The United States currently has 2,500 U.S. soldiers in Iraq and 900 stationed in the northeast area of Syria. Iraqi Shi’ite militias, under Iranian guidance, have already deployed rockets in an attack on the Al-Asad airbase in Iraq’s Al-Anbar province, wounding several U.S. troops. Similarly, Shi’ite militias in Syria mounted drone attacks on American bases in the country.  

Secondarily, America has been constraining Israel from a preventive strike against Iran for purely political purposes. Vide President Kamala Harris, as she assesses her run for the U.S. presidency, understands that she must appease the pro-Hamas “progressive” wing of the Democrat Party, especially in Michigan, where the significant Arab-American community might abstain from giving the Democrat Party their support and vote. That position also holds true in other swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

As the Biden-Harris administration is concerned, a regional war in the Middle East would work to the advantage of Russia and China. As the administration views it, attention on the Middle East is likely to divert attention from the war in Ukraine and enable Russia to become more aggressive. It might also encourage China to attack Taiwan. Moreover, arms for Ukraine would have to be transferred to the Middle East. The question then is: Why hasn’t the administration pursued a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia?

While Israel is prepared and capable of inflicting an effective preventive strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon, that might be somewhat more complicated against Iran, due to the distance and size of the Islamic Republic. To deal with Tehran, Israel requires the active participation of the United States. It seems likely that the administration’s fear of a major war during an election season makes it equally unlikely that a Harris administration would participate or endorse a preventive attack on Iran.

Israel, in its current face-off with Hezbollah, is dealing with a different reality. Whereas, in 2006, it was Israel versus Hezbollah without the interference or participation of additional players, this time the radical Shi’ite “axis of evil” is united and coordinated, and a full-scale engagement with Hezbollah is certain to involve Iran, the Shi’ite militias in Iraq and Syria, with help from both the Assad regime and the Houthis in Yemen. Israel, nonetheless, is currently being attacked by Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, in addition to Iranian-inspired terror groups in Judea and Samaria, and Gaza.

In tying Israel’s hands and preventing it from launching a preventive attack on Iran and Hezbollah, the United States is weakening Israel’s deterrence. Some would even argue that the Biden administration’s insistence on a ceasefire in Gaza and limited Israeli actions against Hezbollah is meant to stop Israel from achieving a victory. 

An IDF operation inside Lebanon that knocks out their four or five power stations will put the Land of the Cedars in darkness. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, will then have to deal with two fronts. The domestic front, in which he would have to quell the massive demonstration of more than 70% of the Lebanese population, would compel him to come to some sort of an agreement with Israel. And, with the northern Galilee emptied of its Israeli population for almost a full year due to Hezbollah’s rocket attacks, Israel cannot continue with the ping-pong exchanges with Hezbollah. The people of Israel demand a resolution that enables the evacuees to return to their homes, and that would require decisive action against Hezbollah.

Congress approved a $14.1 billion aid package for Israel earlier this year; however, the current administration is using this “carrot” to force the Netanyahu government to comply with American interests in the region. The recent approval of $3.5 billion to be released to Israel is predicated on a hostage deal and ending the war in Gaza. As Israelis see it, ending the war in Gaza without the removal of Hamas from Gaza, translates into a victory for Hamas.

A significant number of congressional Democrats are seeking to withhold arms shipments to Israel. It is meant to force the Jewish state to end the war in Gaza. This would leave Hamas in place and provide terrorists the opportunity to re-emerge as a threat to Israel’s civilian population. Israel cannot expose itself to such dictates. It must end its dependency on the United States by becoming self-sufficient in arms production. The U.S.-Israel alliance must be based on mutual respect, regardless of the composition of the Israeli government. Washington and Jerusalem are intimate allies that share democratic and human values, yet Israel must also recognize that U.S. President Joe Biden is, in his own words, probably one of the last “Zionists.” The future Democrat Party doesn’t bode well for Israel; hence, the Jewish state must become self-reliant.