Iran’s ring of fire around Israel is tightening
The Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq, and the terrorist organizations in Gaza, Judea and Samaria – for years Iran has been equipping its allies for this very showdown.
A billboard with Iranian missiles fired at Israel. Text: Honest promise, that is the name of Iran's retaliatory action against the Israeli occupation regime.
Despite the successes of Israel’s defense establishment in the so-called “war between wars,” the regime in Tehran has managed to create a threat that endangers every Israeli. Creativity, geographical advantages, and the involved states: this is how Iran’s smuggling machine operates. “Iran’s Ring of Fire” is a term frequently discussed in Israeli over the past few months, both in the media and academic circles. Here’s a summary.
For years, Israel has warned about the “tentacles” of Iranian influence that promote terrorism in the Middle East. The smuggling of weapons to Tehran’s proxy organizations is an open secret, and Israel has repeatedly tried to prevent such deliveries in Syria and Iraq through airstrikes. However, since the present war began on October 7, it has become clear that despite these strikes, Israel is facing rocket and drone attacks from Iraq and Yemen, precision weapons from Lebanon, and Iranian weapons in Gaza as well as in Judea and Samaria.
The creativity of Iran’s smuggling efforts stands out: Tehran seems willing to consider every conceivable option, hoping something will work. “Like everything they do in life, even on a personal level, the Iranians direct their efforts in all possible directions,” says Beni Sabti, a researcher in the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). “In their nuclear program, they tried every method to obtain the right material. The same applies to terrorism.”
Effective Iranian weapons are now mainly found in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen—but also in Sudan, Jordan, Judea and Samaria, and of course, in the Gaza Strip. The route to Iran’s neighboring countries and from there to Hezbollah is relatively easy: the path leads from Iran through Iraq to Syria, and then into Lebanon, where weapon smuggling faces little resistance. Beni Sabti says: “This route serves Hezbollah, it’s the northern route and the easiest for them. The Assad regime, both the father and now the son, cooperates. Since the civil war, the Syrians are subjugated to the Iranians and Hezbollah. Syria, in effect, no longer exists—it’s an Iranian province.”
Iraq and Syria are key countries for Iran, both in terms of its regional influence and smuggling routes. Pro-Iranian militias operate in both countries, receiving instructions and weapons from Iran. From there, weapons are smuggled into Lebanon, Jordan, and from Jordan into Judea and Samaria. “In Syria itself, Iran has armed all the militias it left behind during the civil war,” says Sabti. “All the armies supposedly built for the Assad regime, like Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun, are still in Syria. Iran is escalating its methods. There is not just one army against Israel, but many. There are many paths and many players.”
It is no secret that since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Iran has worked to strengthen Assad’s rule and solidify its influence in Syria. Iran has sent senior commanders from the Revolutionary Guards and Shiite militia organizations to Syria, established military bases, and interfered in the decisions and policies of the Assad regime.
Less well known is that Iran is also exerting massive social, educational, cultural, and religious influence in Syria. It introduces Iranian and Shiite materials into schools and kindergartens, establishes Iranian cultural centers, and organizes recruitment campaigns to enlist Syrians into the militias it supports. Iran is also changing the demographic composition of certain areas by relocating Shiite Iranians and their families there.
A report published by MEMRI in early July elaborates on this. In January 2020, Iran and the Syrian regime signed a comprehensive educational agreement that includes Iranian books in the official Syrian curriculum and introduces Persian as a second language in secondary schools. The report notes that Iran operates numerous Shiite kindergartens throughout Syria, where children are taught “the correct principles of Islam.” Iran also has a presence in higher education: five Iranian universities are active in Syria.
“The Iranians are establishing centers across Syria for children aged 8 to 18, giving them uniforms, teaching them Shiite Islam, introducing them to activities related to Shiite sites, and then starting to train them in drills and parades. Later, they are recruited for military training units, and eventually, they become soldiers for Hezbollah or Iran,” says Dr. Yehuda Balanga, a Syria expert at the Middle East Studies Institute of Bar-Ilan University. Iranian cultural centers have also been established in Syria, typically run by senior Revolutionary Guard commanders, offering free Persian courses and activities for children and youth, including trips to Shiite sites throughout the country.
The report mentions that the majority of Syria’s population is Sunni, in contrast to the Alawite Assad family. “In 1973, Lebanese Shiite leader Musa al-Sadr recognized the Alawites as a sect of Shiite Islam, facilitating the Syrian Alawites’ alignment with Shiite forces in Iran. Since the war began in 2011, Bashar al-Assad has viewed the Iranization and Shiitization of Syria as a way to strengthen himself against his predominantly Sunni domestic opponents.”
As part of this Shiitization of Syria, Iran seeks to change the country’s demographics. To this end, Syrian and Iranian agents purchase real estate, especially around Damascus, in the city itself, and in northeastern Syria. Sometimes they offer high prices to persuade owners to sell. In other cases, they use pressure and threats to force owners to sell cheaply. After acquiring the properties, members of Shiite militias and their families, many of whom are not Syrian citizens, are settled there. To obscure this, the Assad regime has sometimes granted Syrian citizenship to foreign militiamen.
The Shiitization of Syria is also evident in the conversion of Sunni mosques into Shiite religious centers, renaming them after Shiite heroes, and exploiting the economic plight of Syrians to convert them to Shiite Islam in exchange for gifts, food, and financial aid. Iranian religious missions are also sent to various regions in Syria to promote Shiite Islam to tribal leaders, knowing that if a leader converts, the rest of the tribe will follow.
“It is a poor population, hit hard by the civil war, that wants to regain a sense of security. When a power like Iran, which helped Assad win the civil war, initiates a process of religious conversion, it’s likely they will eventually be convinced,” says Balanga. “Tehran pays tribal leaders, families, or fighters who convert to Shiism and join the Shiite militias significant sums, ranging from 300 to 800 dollars per fighter.”
The MEMRI report also highlights the obvious: Iran has the ability to interfere in Assad’s regime’s decisions and policies, including in military and security matters. Some Syrian security units are loyal to Iran, allowing it to control them directly through Iranian officers. Iran achieved this by providing extensive military and economic support to the Assad regime.
According to Balanga, it is no coincidence that Iran places such great importance on Syria. Iran’s goal is to use Syria to strengthen its ring of fire around Israel. “Of the 830 foreign bases in Syria today, Iran controls 570. Estimates suggest there are between 60,000 and 100,000 Tehran-loyal coalition forces in Syria today. Iran is surrounding Israel with a ring of fire from Gaza, from Lebanon, and now from another front of tens of thousands of armed Shiites in Syria.”
Prof. Eyal Zisser, former director of the Moshe Dayan Center and now a lecturer at the Middle Eastern History Department at Tel Aviv University, expresses a similar view. “We need to observe the Iranization of Syria because this process could deepen, ultimately making Syria a clearly Shiite state that is not only politically but also ideologically and religiously aligned with Iran,” Zisser says. “If the process deepens, we could face a Syrian enemy that, like Hezbollah, views the fight against us as central to its mission. This differs from the Assad regime’s previous behavior, which has remained neutral and not directly confronted Israel. The Syrian regime cooperates with Iran today out of interest, not ideology.”
While Israel has to some extent succeeded in blocking the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ attempts to establish naval and air bases and missile defense systems in Syria, it has failed to prevent the establishment of Shiite militias in the country. “The most important thing is that we must not allow these militias in Syria to carry out larger operations against Israel that could drag us into an attrition war similar to the one at the Lebanese border. If Assad allows the militias to attack us from the Syrian border, we must act forcefully against both them and him,” Zisser concludes.
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