THOSE ISRAELI PROTESTS FOR THE RELEASE OF HOSTAGES ARE REALLY ANTI-BIBI PROTESTS

Netanyahu's unassailable front

While 107 hostages remain in Gaza, northern residents are unable to return home and Iranian threats loom over our heads, there is one front where Netanyahu is recording an absolute victory – the internal coalition front.

 

By Amir Ettinger  

 

Israel Hayom

Aug 30, 2024

Netanyahu visits with IDF soldiers on the front lines in the Gaza strip

 

"What's today's date?" a senior minister quipped when I asked him about the current Israeli government's "expiration date."

"If you had told me in October after the massacre, or even in November, that the government would survive until now, I would have said you were hallucinating," he said. "It's truly amazing we've managed to last this long." The minister's response encapsulates Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's success story.

While 107 hostages remain in Hamas tunnels, northern residents are unable to return home, Iran threatens to launch missiles at Israel, and our forces bravely operate in West Bank refugee camps, there is one front where Netanyahu is recording an absolute victory contrary to predictions and to the chagrin of a significant portion of Israel's citizens – the internal coalition front.

Challenges certainly exist, but when it comes to preserving his government, Netanyahu is adept at spotting potential pitfalls without prompting. His inner circle of coalition watchdogs remains constantly alert, and the Likud party's political radar stays active even during parliamentary recesses.

When a problem arises with a rebellious lawmaker or dissatisfaction from a coalition member that could cause political damage, whether it's Knesset members Eli Dalal who has repeatedly criticized the government, Eliyahu Revivo who publicly suggested the need for elections, or Galit Distel who conveyed messages about her anger after being forced to resign as communications minister due to alleged harassment from Netanyahu's circle. When such issues arise, Netanyahu and his team typically employ a consistent strategy to address them.

Police use water cannons to disperse demonstrators during a protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, February 24, 2024.

 

Deputy Prime Minister Yariv Levin, the figure closest to Netanyahu, is responsible for identifying coalition problems and raising red flags when necessary. He's not the only one; the Cabinet Secretary and key members of Netanyahu's staff are also involved in monitoring potential issues and implementing solutions.

The names I mentioned, and others, receive check-in conversations with Levin, who assesses their needs. When there's a serious problem, Netanyahu intervenes with his well-known tactic. The rebellious lawmaker is summoned to the office, and then Netanyahu delivers a comprehensive briefing on the war and diplomatic situation with a grave demeanor. He produces a document with an aura of secrecy, sharing situation assessments not usually accessible to the lawmaker. Those familiar with this method understand it as Netanyahu's way of making the person across from him feel uncomfortable about causing trouble. The implication is that they would be endangering the coalition led by Israel's prime minister, who is dealing with weighty security and diplomatic issues. The underlying message is that elections must be avoided, as they would, in their view, only please Israel's enemies.

Besides trying to appease the lawmaker, in times of crisis, an offer for a position outside the Knesset is always on the table. Thus, Dalal and Distel were offered the ambassador position in Rome, and Revivo was presented with various proposals. As part of dealing with political problems, former Permanent Representative of Israel to the UN Danny Danon was sent for another term, and not just because of his diplomatic skills. On the other hand, lawmaker Boaz Bismuth pleaded with Netanyahu's office to let him leave the Knesset and appoint him as an ambassador to one of the Mediterranean countries, but he was refused. Ironically, those who don't cause problems for Netanyahu don't receive a sympathetic ear from him. That's how it works with the prime minister.

Despite this maintenance method that has borne fruit so far and alongside a divided and ineffective opposition, the coalition is not immune to future problems that could even lead to the government's downfall. Netanyahu's circle estimates that even if there is a hostage deal, signed under the conditions the prime minister insists on with Hamas, Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich will at most oppose and perhaps temporarily suspend their participation in the coalition, but they won't bring down the government over it. Netanyahu's inner circle is expressing concern specifically about the ultra-Orthodox front on the issue of the conscription law.

Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein, who manages the conscription law discussions, is a pivotal figure in shaping the coalition's future. Netanyahu knows this, and according to the maintenance method, he strives to bring him closer so that he will advance the volatile law through agreements with the ultra-Orthodox community and not act like Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant, who made his agreement conditional on cooperation with the opposition.

A senior figure in Netanyahu's circle said: "If there isn't a conscription law soon, the government won't survive much longer. The ultra-Orthodox are losing patience."

Behind the scenes, Minister of Construction and Housing Yitzchak Goldknopf, a Haredi from the Hasidic faction, Deputy Minister of Transport and Road Safety Uri Maklev representing the Lithuanian faction, and Former Knesset member Ariel Attias representing the Shas political party are pressuring Netanyahu to fast-track the bill. Netanyahu promised the law would be ready by the High Holidays, based on Edelstein's assurance that committee work would wrap up by late September. However, this timeline is now in question.

While the ultra-Orthodox parties have no desire to bring down the government, their constituents are feeling the pinch of significant economic measures. The cuts to daycare subsidies, coupled with the Finance Ministry's reductions in funding for yeshiva students and teachers in ultra-Orthodox schools, are creating mounting pressure that the parties can't ignore indefinitely.

Smotrich and Netanyahu delayed budget discussions in the government until October, contrary to the Finance Ministry's preferred timeline. This postponement aims to resolve the conscription issue first, recognizing that passing a wartime budget with cuts requires coalition stability and discipline. Without a conscription law, the chances of pushing a budget through the coalition diminish significantly. And without a budget, the government's future is in jeopardy. Let's see what happens after the High Holidays.