Wednesday, August 14, 2024

SOONER OR LATER ISRAEL WILL BE ATTACKED BY HEZBOLLAH OR IRAN, OR BY BOTH

US diplomatic blitz aims to stop the inevitable

Israel Today commentator Yossi Aloni examines the US-led efforts to keep the Doha summit from failing and to prevent an attack on Israel.

 

By Yossi Aloni 

 

Mullahs on missile-driven magic carpets (Matthew Morgenstern)
Mullahs on missile-driven magic carpets headed for Tel Aviv
 

US special envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Israel last night on his way to Beirut. Hochstein is set to meet with the Lebanese Prime Minister and high-ranking officials in a final attempt to prevent a Hezbollah attack on Israel. His visit is part of an international diplomatic blitz led by the US, aimed at exerting unprecedented pressure on Iran and its proxies to delay the attack on Israel and to save the Doha summit scheduled for Thursday, which is seen as the last opportunity for reaching a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza.

The CIA chief, along with Mossad head David Barnea, the Prime Minister of Qatar, and the head of Egyptian intelligence, will travel to Doha. President Biden’s envoy, Brett McGurk, has traveled to Cairo to finalize discussions on the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah border crossing—before heading to Doha to participate in the talks.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was set to embark on a Middle East tour on Tuesday evening, has postponed his departure and will wait for the results of the summit. The reason for the delay is the uncertainty over whether Iran and Hezbollah will attack Israel. A senior US official stated that it is unclear if Iran will delay the attack. Hezbollah is believed not to feel bound to delay the attack, and preparations are continuing from their perspective. The Middle East could be thrown into turmoil after the summit.

The US government anticipates that the talks in Doha may fail following recent announcements from Israel and Hamas. It is expected that the US will present a new draft in Doha and pressure the parties to immediately accept its key points. In a statement from US President Joe Biden and the leaders of Qatar and Egypt last Friday, it was said: “As mediators, we are prepared, if necessary, to present a final mediation proposal that resolves the remaining implementation issues in a manner that meets the expectations of all parties.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office yesterday denied reports by The New York Times that he had added new demands to the draft on May 27, making the continuation of negotiations difficult and jeopardizing the success of the hostage deal. Among the reported new conditions is that IDF troops remain at the southern border of the Gaza Strip. “The draft from July 27 contains no new conditions and does not contradict the May 27 draft. It was Hamas that demanded 29 changes, which the Prime Minister rejected,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated.

  • Regarding the claim that new demands were added related to the Netzarim crossing, the Prime Minister’s Office clarified: “The July 27 draft refers to the need to establish an agreed-upon verification mechanism to ensure that only unarmed civilians return to the northern Gaza Strip (a proposal by the United States) – in accordance with the proposal in the May 27 draft.”
  • Regarding the claim that new demands were added related to the release of living hostages, Netanyahu’s office explained: “The July 27 draft stated that all living hostages of the relevant category should be released, in accordance with the May 27 draft, which stated that a specific number of hostages—living or dead—should be released.”
  • Regarding the claim that new demands were added related to the manner of releasing Palestinian terrorists: “The July 27 draft did not set new conditions. On the contrary, the May 27 draft provided that Israel would have a veto over a specific number of terrorists to be released and that Israel would be able to deport at least a certain number of terrorists abroad (at least 50 terrorists). The July 27 draft includes essential clarifications for implementation that were included in the May 27 draft.”

Today (Wednesday), Prime Minister Netanyahu will convene the negotiating team for a briefing before the team departs for the Doha summit. According to sources familiar with the matter, the question arises whether Netanyahu will grant the team a comprehensive mandate, allowing them to finalize an agreement. The backdrop to this is a heated debate between Netanyahu and the negotiating team. Senior members of the team warned that there would be no point in traveling to the summit if the mandate is not expanded.

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