WHY THE WAIT?

Hezbollah waiting for opportunity, Iran may attempt multiple simultaneous attacks

Israeli sources believes that the Islamic Republic is calculating its next move and aims to challenge IDF air defense systems. They add that it is not appropriate to conduct a preemptive strike at this time, but if active launchers are identified, an effort may be made to disable them beforehand.

 

By Lilach Shoval  

 

Israel Hayom

Aug 7, 2024

 

Iran and its proxies are engaged in a "battle of wits" with Israel

 

The delay explained: as Israel continues to wait and prepare for attacks from Hezbollah and Iran, Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah stated that Israel's waiting is part of the response and constitutes as psychological terror.

According to sources, Hezbollah could have long targeted fixed Israeli military sites, such as an airstrip or a naval dock, but it is waiting for an operational opportunity to exact a toll from Israel.

It is also assessed by these sources that Iran is calculating its next moves, and may attempt to challenge the Israeli air defense systems with widespread fire - not only from Iran itself, but also from Iraq and Yemen, simultaneously.

 

 

In reality, there is an ongoing learning battle between Israel and Iran. Israel is developing plans based on scenarios and responses, strengthening its defense systems, and tightening the international coalition. Meanwhile, Iran and its proxies are trying to find a way to penetrate said defense systems, select significant targets that wont lead into an escalation to all-out war, and coordinate their response with militias affiliated with the Islamic Republic.

As of the time of writing, Israel still believes it is not correct to shift the main effort from Gaza northward and, therefore, not to carry out a preemptive strike that could start a war, despite the tense waiting. However, for example, if active aunchers are identified before launching salvos at Israel, it is not unlikely that Israel will strike them before they become fully operational.

The Israeli response to an attack by Hezbollah and Iran will be examined according to their intentions, namely, the ammunition fired at Israel, the target, and primarily the damage caused as a result.

Israel is, in fact, stands at a strategic crossroads, choosing between a hostage deal that would release between 20 and 33 or 35 live hostages in exchange for four to six weeks of a ceasefire - or continuing the current course towards escalation, potentially leading to a regional war.